Complicity

From Reagan to Obama, presidents have left office with ‘strategic regret’ − will leaving troops in Iraq and Syria be Biden or Trump’s?

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, April 9, 2024

U.S. presidents often leave the White House expressing “strategic regret” over perceived foreign policy failures.

Key Points: 
  • U.S. presidents often leave the White House expressing “strategic regret” over perceived foreign policy failures.
  • Lyndon Johnson was haunted by the Vietnam War.
  • Bill Clinton regretted the failed intervention in Somalia and how the “Black Hawk Down” incident contributed to his administration’s inaction over the Rwandan genocide.
  • Barack Obama said the Libyan intervention was “the worst mistake” of his presidency.

Another Beirut?

  • The Middle East has entered a volatile period.
  • The threat to U.S. personnel in the region takes the form of both the Islamic State group, which is intent on hitting Western targets, and the increased risk from a network of Iran-linked militants seeking to avenge what they see as U.S. complicity in Israel’s siege of Gaza.
  • If any mass-casualty attack on U.S. forces were to occur, the occupant of the White House would face two conditions that have left departing presidents experiencing strategic regret: the loss of American lives on their watch and the prospect of being drawn into a widening war.
  • Today’s situation in Iraq and Syria is eerily similar in many ways to the circumstances Reagan faced in Beirut, but potentially far more dangerous.
  • Like Lebanon then, U.S. troops are in Iraq and Syria for secondary, as opposed to primary, security objectives.
  • According to a recent Pentagon report, that threat remains exceedingly weak today for the United States.
  • While Reagan was unaware of the high exposure of U.S. Marines in 1983, the danger U.S. troops face today in Iraq and Syria is abundantly clear.
  • The Jordan attack aside, U.S. service members have already suffered significant injuries from missiles, including dozens of traumatic brain injuries.

Fueling hubris


Some might consider this concern about “another Beirut” overblown. After all, proxy attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria have dropped since the attack in Jordan in late January, giving the impression that deterrence is now working after big U.S. retaliatory strikes in February.

  • The 1983 Marine Corps barracks bombing was preceded a few months earlier by a smaller, yet still deadly, bombing at the U.S. embassy in Beirut.
  • In the lull that followed the embassy attack, Reagan officials didn’t pursue a strategically smart rethink of U.S. policy or consider troop reductions.
  • In short, lulls in violence like today in Iraq and Syria can fuel hubris and provide a dangerous sense of false security and a determination to stay the course.
  • As research shows, “see, I told you so” is a powerful rhetorical tool in circumstances like this.

The ghosts of history

  • But anything too large risks inviting the kind of response that could lead to lasting and devastating outcomes.
  • Imagine, for example, a scenario in which a U.S. president is provoked into striking Iran following repeated attacks by Tehran’s proxies on U.S. troops.
  • The result would be an expansion of – and further U.S. involvement in – the Middle East conflict.
  • Their experiences and the ghosts of history serve as a warning when it comes to U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq now.


Charles Walldorf received funding from Charles Koch Foundation.

Charles Walldorf is a Visiting Fellow, Defense Priorities

Canadians ramp up pressure on Trudeau and Joly with coordinated blockades of weapons manufacturers as UN calls for immediate arms embargo on Israel

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Over 82,000 Canadians signed a parliamentary petition demanding an embargo on military exports to Israel, and 75 civil society groups called on Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly to resign if she won’t impose an arms embargo.

Key Points: 
  • Over 82,000 Canadians signed a parliamentary petition demanding an embargo on military exports to Israel, and 75 civil society groups called on Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly to resign if she won’t impose an arms embargo.
  • Canadian communities are demanding that the government end its complicity with Israeli genocide and stop all military exports.
  • All of the companies that have been targeted by actions this week are producing weapons and arms components that are being used by Israel to attack Gaza’s civilian population and infrastructure.
  • “It’s been over a month since the International Court of Justice ruled that Israel is plausibly committing genocide in Gaza.

BREAKING: Another city joins the call: Three weapons manufacturers across Canada are now blockaded in an effort to stop flow of weapons to Israel

Retrieved on: 
Monday, February 26, 2024

These rolling actions are a concerted effort to interrupt Canada's complicity in Israel's genocide against Gaza, just days after the UN called for an immediate arms embargo against Israel.

Key Points: 
  • These rolling actions are a concerted effort to interrupt Canada's complicity in Israel's genocide against Gaza, just days after the UN called for an immediate arms embargo against Israel.
  • In Peterborough, activists picketed a Safran Electronics facility, and spoke with many supportive workers about their employer's complicity in genocide.
  • "We are seeing different actions take place at arms companies across Canada demanding an immediate arms embargo against Israel.
  • Government officials have been misrepresenting the nature of Canada's military exports to Israel, and failing to uphold their legal responsibility under the Arms Trade Treaty.

BREAKING: Coordinated blockades at major weapons manufacturers to demand arms embargo on Israel

Retrieved on: 
Monday, February 26, 2024

Toronto, Peterborough, Ontario, Feb. 26, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Two major arms manufacturers are being disrupted this morning, kicking off rolling actions to interrupt the flow of weapons to Israel.

Key Points: 
  • Toronto, Peterborough, Ontario, Feb. 26, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Two major arms manufacturers are being disrupted this morning, kicking off rolling actions to interrupt the flow of weapons to Israel.
  • Canada has enacted arms embargos before, and it must enact one now, immediately, to stop this genocidal violence."
  • "We are seeing different actions take place at arms companies across Canada demanding an immediate arms embargo against Israel.
  • On Friday, UN experts named Canada's military exports as a likely violation of international law in their urgent call for an immediate arms embargo against Israel.

Children are expensive – not just for parents, but the environment − so how many is too many?

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, February 15, 2024

Natural habitats are being decimated, the world is growing hotter, and scientists fear we are experiencing the sixth mass extinction event in Earth’s history.

Key Points: 
  • Natural habitats are being decimated, the world is growing hotter, and scientists fear we are experiencing the sixth mass extinction event in Earth’s history.
  • Under such circumstances, is it reasonable to bring a child into the world?
  • Recently, my work has explored questions where these two fields intersect, such as how climate change should affect decision-making about having a family.

A lifelong footprint

  • Many people who care about the environment believe they are obligated to try to reduce their impact: driving fuel-efficient vehicles, recycling and purchasing food locally, for example.
  • So, if you think you are obligated to do other activities to reduce your impact on the environment, you should limit your family size, too.
  • In response, however, some people may argue that adding a single person to a planet of 8 billion cannot make a meaningful difference.

Crunching the numbers

  • For example, statistician Paul Murtaugh and scientist Michael Schlax attempted to estimate the “carbon legacy” tied to a couple’s choice to procreate.
  • They estimated the total lifetime emissions of individuals living in the world’s most populous 11 countries.
  • Driving a more fuel-efficient car, on the other hand – getting 10 more miles to the gallon – would save only 148 metric tons of CO2-equivalent.
  • He found that the average American contributes roughly one two-billionth of the total greenhouse gases that cause climate change.

Collective toll

  • One common thought in ethics is that people should avoid participating in enterprises that involve collective wrongdoing.
  • Suppose someone considers making a small donation to an organization that they learn is engaged in immoral activities, such as polluting a local river.
  • We could reason the same way about procreation: Overpopulation is a collective problem that is degrading the environment and causing harm, so individuals should reduce their contribution to it when they can.

Moral gray zone


But perhaps having children warrants an exception. Parenthood is often a crucial part of people’s life plans and makes their lives far more meaningful, even if it does come at a cost to the planet. Some people believe reproductive freedom is so important that no one should feel moral pressure to restrict the size of their family.

  • Is there a way to balance the varied and competing moral considerations in play here?
  • I believe this allows a couple an appropriate amount of reproductive freedom while also recognizing the moral significance of the environmental problems linked to population growth.
  • It is also possible, as ethicist Kalle Grill has argued, that none of these positions gets the moral calculus exactly right.
  • Regardless, it is clear that prospective parents should reflect on the moral dimensions of procreation and its importance to their life plans.


Trevor Hedberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Prabowo’s likely victory: Jokowi’s effect and a test for Indonesia’s democracy

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, February 15, 2024

According to the latest reliable polling, Prabowo – Indonesia’s defence minister – secured almost 60% of the votes in what is considered as the largest and most complex single-day election in the world.

Key Points: 
  • According to the latest reliable polling, Prabowo – Indonesia’s defence minister – secured almost 60% of the votes in what is considered as the largest and most complex single-day election in the world.
  • This will likely mean that there will be no second round.
  • But since its first direct presidential election in 2004, Indonesia has relied on quick counts to know their new president on the election day.
  • This is his fourth attempt to run for the country’s top jobs.
  • He first ran as the vice presidential candidate for Megawati Sukarnoputri, PDIP chairwoman, in the 2009 presidential election.
  • It was after his 2019 election defeat that Prabowo accepted the offer of a job as Jokowi’s defence minister.

Jokowi’s factor

  • The Prabowo-Gibran ticket was organised with substantial involvement from Jokowi throughout.
  • Gibran was ruled eligible to stand as a vice-presidential candidate after the constitutional court, led by Jokowi’s brother-in-law Anwar Usman, overturned a requirement that the candidates must be at least 40 so that his 36-year-old son could run.
  • Many declared that the election was no longer about continuing Jokowi’s legacy but about saving democracy.
  • Three days before the election, a film exposing alleged electoral fraud involving Jokowi went viral.
  • These ranged from distributing government funds to potential voters before the election to planting supporters in numerous key provinces.

What does this mean for Indonesia’s democracy?

  • But it remains too early to make any judgements about any real democratic threat from the election.
  • He is the son-in-law of Indonesia long-term autocratic leader Suharto and has been accused of complicity in the disappearances of 13 activists during Suharto’s presidency.
  • Baca juga:
    On election eve, all 3 of Indonesia's presidential candidates have troubling human rights records

    .

  • It’s unlikely that Prabowo could have even achieved the runner’s up position had the election been held a year ago.
  • And, importantly, the military does not necessarily support Prabowo.


Yohanes Sulaiman tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.

Former army general Prabowo Subianto likely to win Indonesia’s election at 4th attempt

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Voters in the world’s third-largest democracy, Indonesia, have elected former army general Prabowo Subianto as its eighth president, despite his campaign being dogged by accusations of human rights violations and electoral fraud.

Key Points: 
  • Voters in the world’s third-largest democracy, Indonesia, have elected former army general Prabowo Subianto as its eighth president, despite his campaign being dogged by accusations of human rights violations and electoral fraud.
  • According to the latest reliable polling, Prabowo – Indonesia’s defence minister – secured almost 60% of the votes in what is considered as the largest and most complex single-day election in the world.
  • This will likely mean that there will be no second round.
  • He first ran as the vice presidential candidate for Megawati Sukarnoputri, PDIP chairwoman, in the 2009 presidential election.
  • It was after his 2019 election defeat that Prabowo accepted the offer of a job as Jokowi’s defence minister.
  • In this year’s election Prabowo teamed up with Jokowi’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, after a dispute between Jokowi and Megawati over their choice of candidates.

Jokowi’s factor

  • The Prabowo-Gibran ticket was organised with substantial involvement from Jokowi throughout.
  • Gibran was ruled eligible to stand as a vice-presidential candidate after the constitutional court, led by Jokowi’s brother-in-law Anwar Usman, overturned a requirement that the candidates must be at least 40 so that his 36-year-old son could run.
  • Many declared that the election was no longer about continuing Jokowi’s legacy but about saving democracy.
  • Three days before the election, a film exposing alleged electoral fraud involving Jokowi went viral.
  • These ranged from distributing government funds to potential voters before the election to planting supporters in numerous key provinces.

What does this mean for Indonesia’s democracy?

  • But it remains too early to make any judgements about any real democratic threat from the election.
  • Baca juga:
    On election eve, all 3 of Indonesia's presidential candidates have troubling human rights records

    .

  • It’s unlikely that Prabowo could have even achieved the runner’s up position had the election been held a year ago.
  • And, importantly, the military does not necessarily support Prabowo.


Yohanes Sulaiman tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.

Israel isn’t complying with the International Court of Justice ruling — what happens next?

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, February 6, 2024

More than a week has passed since the International Court of Justice (ICJ) mandated provisional measures against Israel following South Africa’s accusation of genocide.

Key Points: 
  • More than a week has passed since the International Court of Justice (ICJ) mandated provisional measures against Israel following South Africa’s accusation of genocide.
  • It must also report back to the court within a month on the implementation of these measures.

No adherence

  • According to the Health Ministry in Gaza, more than 27,000 Palestinians have now been killed and more than 66,000 injured since the Hamas attacks against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
  • Israel has also targeted several medical facilities in Gaza, including Nasser hospital, since the ICJ ruling.
  • The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) called Rafah a “pressure cooker of despair.”

In direct contravention

  • Such action would be in direct contravention of ICJ’s explicit order that Israel ensures basic services and humanitarian aid reaches civilians in Gaza.
  • These developments underscore the gravity of the conditions in Gaza following the ICJ ruling, and highlight the urgent need for Israel to comply with the orders.

What’s next?

  • Nonetheless, the ICJ ruling sends a clear message to the international community, especially to states allied with Israel, reminding them of the collective responsibility to respect and uphold international law.
  • As such, the implications of the decision extend well beyond the immediate parties involved.
  • It raises concerns about Canada’s military exports, especially the $21 million of military equipment sent to Israel in 2022.

The Global South strikes back?

  • In a broader context, the ICJ’s involvement represents an example of the Global South striking back, as international law expert Heidi Matthews argues in her podcast.
  • South Africa’s historical fight against apartheid has made the Palestinian cause resonate for South Africans, lending credibility and moral weight to its case against Israel.
  • Nonetheless, despite the hope that the Global South may begin to effectively hold powerful nations to account, the international reaction to the ICJ ruling has been notably ambivalent.
  • But the specifics haven’t been disclosed, and there are few other organizations with the expertise and infrastructure to meet the needs of Palestinians in Gaza.

Upholding international law

  • The ICJ ruling calls for urgent action, not just from Israel, but also from the wider international community — including Canada — to uphold the tenets of international law and support humanitarian efforts.
  • Global Affairs Canada recently stated on social media that “Canada rejects any proposal that calls for the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza and the establishment of additional settlements.
  • The world is watching, and Canada’s actions now must showcase its commitment to justice, human rights and the rule of law.


Basema Al-Alami does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Enemy collaboration in occupied Ukraine evokes painful memories in Europe – and the response risks a rush to vigilante justice

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, February 6, 2024

Collaboration with the enemy is a common and often painful part of armed conflict.

Key Points: 
  • Collaboration with the enemy is a common and often painful part of armed conflict.
  • It is also an issue in which I have both a professional and personal interest.
  • The war in Ukraine is, in many ways, a transparent conflict, with cellphone images, drone cameras and satellite imagery feeding a flow of data to social media platforms and news outlets.

Liberating powers

  • In June 2022, Bucha was the first liberated city from which collaboration with Russians was reported.
  • The problem of collaboration is especially thorny in Ukraine’s Donbass region, with its long history of Russian-Ukrainian cultural and linguistic interaction.
  • Since the summer of 2022, the front has stalemated, with a little more than half the region under Russian control.

What to do with collaborators

  • On March 3, 2022, the Ukrainian parliament amended the country’s criminal code with two new laws criminalizing any type of cooperation with an aggressor state.
  • It also prohibits cooperation with an aggressor state, its occupation administrations and its armed forces or paramilitary forces.
  • The changes to Ukraine’s criminal code reflected concern among Ukraine’s leaders that collaboration with Russia would give the invading forces both ideological and military advantages.
  • Yet in the near-daily speeches made since then by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, I was unable to find any reference to the need to root out collaborators.

The rush to (in)justice

  • Were they acting out of a survival instinct or did they really sympathize with the Russians?
  • Liberation brings tremendous release, not only of newfound freedom but of temptations toward revenge against those who once supported the occupier.
  • This could be one reason why societies that experience occupation followed by liberation are prone to vengeance-seeking and lawlessness.
  • The Netherlands, even with its global reputation for upholding human rights and democratic values, was no exception to the rush to judgment of suspected collaborators after World War II.

The post-occupation challenge

  • A similar rush to justice appears to be playing out in parts of liberated Ukraine.
  • Journalist Joshua Yaffa, writing from liberated Izyum for The New Yorker, found a town in which hundreds had been questioned or detained on suspicion of collaboration with occupying Russians.

Families divided

  • And the longer the Russian occupation goes on, the more those in the occupied areas will be pressured into everyday complicity.
  • As with the Netherlands at the end of Nazi occupation, the search for collaborators in Ukraine will not only be made by police and partisans; it will happen within families coming to terms with the past.


Ronald Niezen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Kara Walker: Back of Hand Exhibition Opening at the Poetry Foundation

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, January 31, 2024

CHICAGO, Jan. 31, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The Poetry Foundation announces the exhibition Kara Walker: Back of Hand, on display for the first time since its 2021 debut at the University of Georgia's (UGA) Lamar Dodd School of Art in Athens, Georgia. The exhibition will be open to the public from February 15–May 18, 2024.

Key Points: 
  • CHICAGO, Jan. 31, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The Poetry Foundation announces the exhibition Kara Walker: Back of Hand , on display for the first time since its 2021 debut at the University of Georgia's (UGA) Lamar Dodd School of Art in Athens, Georgia.
  • The exhibition is curated by Katie Geha and organized by Katherine Litwin and Fred Sasaki of the Poetry Foundation.
  • "This exhibition presents a unique opportunity to read Kara Walker's visual art as poetry and provocation," said Fred Sasaki.
  • Admission to the opening event and the exhibition are free; guests are encouraged to register for the opening event.