Sudan: the longer the conflict lasts, the higher the risk of a regional war
The country now faces the worst conflict in its history as a full-blown civil war – with external entanglements – looms.
- The country now faces the worst conflict in its history as a full-blown civil war – with external entanglements – looms.
- There is also a risk that the conflict could spill over to neighbouring countries and escalate into a regional conflict.
- Regional powers and neighbours have lined up behind either of the two generals – or in some cases both.
- Regional and international actors are key in enabling – or preventing – the development of the crisis into a protracted civil war with regional dimensions.
Fretful neighbours
- This has included supporting various military governments, as well as containing the Islamist resurgence in the 1990s.
- It didn’t want a military regime – and its ally – being replaced by a civilian democratic government.
- Since the outbreak of the recent conflict, Egypt has adopted a cautious approach by working to mediate a permanent ceasefire.
- It is already having to manage a refugee crisis as tens of thousands of Sudanese attempt to get away from the conflict.
- With tensions rising in Darfur, forces could be split: some will side with Hemedti’s forces.
External powers
- Clashes in Sudan could very well turn the region into a playground for external powers to extend their influence.
- Under presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump, US influence waned across Africa and the Middle East.
- Russia, for example, is reportedly negotiating military and economic deals, allowing it to use Sudan’s ports on the main trading routes to Europe.
- This will make it more difficult to contain the conflict or find a resolution that satisfies all parties.