Leamer

Resilient U.S. Economy Continues to Avoid Recession -- So Far

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, June 7, 2023
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Unemployment, Employment, Federal, Bureau, Policy, UCLA Anderson School of Management, State government, SAAR, Essay, Criticism of the Federal Reserve, Leamer, Federal Reserve, GDP, Growth, LOS, UCLA, Federal Open Market Committee, News, Software, Cryptocurrency, Video game, Fast food, Tourism, Forecast

LOS ANGELES , June 7, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- With the release of the UCLA Anderson Forecast's June 2023 report, there is some good news: The U.S. economy is not in a recession — yet. But the latest forecast comes with a caution.

Key Points: 
  • Consequently, as they did in the previous two quarters, Anderson Forecast economists have issued a forecast with two scenarios: one involving a recession the other without a recession.
  • Simply put, aggressive action by the Fed could eventually push the economy into a mild recession.
  • So far, it has not, but the possibility of a recession still looms, depending on future Fed actions.
  • In the recession scenario, the California economy would decline, but by less than the U.S. economy.

UCLA Anderson Forecast: No recession, but U.S., California economies continue to slow

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, September 21, 2022
Faculty, Federal, Time, ESG, COVID-19, Policy, Risk, UCLA Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, UCLA Anderson School of Management, Wall Street, Federal Reserve, Main Street, Population, Growth, Sustainability, Climate change, No, UCLA, Government, GDP, Environment, Leamer, Technology, Private sector, KB Home, Transport, Housing, PCE, Forecasting, Renewable energy, Tourism, Real estate, Pharmaceutical industry, CPI, Forecast

LOS ANGELES, Sept. 21, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The U.S. economy is likely to muddle along with below-trend growth and continued high inflation over the next 12 months, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast's latest report. And while no recession is forecast at this time, Forecast economists say the possibility still exists that persistent inflation and aggressive interest rate policy will lead to a "hard landing" of the economy, potentially precipitating a recession.

Key Points: 
  • The UCLA Anderson consensus forecast is that the economy will grow, on average, 1.5% in 2022, 0.3% in 2023 and 2.0% in 2024.
  • By 2024, the UCLA Anderson Forecast expects the economy to rebound and growth to accelerate slightly above long-term trends, to 2.3% to 2.5% annualized growth each quarter.
  • In the September 2022 forecast for California, UCLA Anderson Forecast director Jerry Nickelsburg examines the impact of the state's recent declines in population on its economy.
  • The panel discussion will feature moderator Magali Delmas, professor at UCLA Anderson and the UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability and faculty director of the UCLA Anderson Center for Impact; Jacob Atalla, vice president of sustainability initiatives at KB Home; UCLA alumna Kelly Clark, ESG specialist and stakeholder manager at the UCLA Anderson Center for Impact; and Henry Friedman, associate professor of accounting at UCLA Anderson.

UCLA Anderson Forecast says U.S. economy is in "Depression-like crisis" and will not return to pre-recession peak until 2023

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, June 24, 2020
Statistical forecasting, Supply chain management, Forecast, Economic forecasting, Leamer

He suggests that more relief will be needed this summer, and although a recovery is eventually forecast, it is expected to be moderate.

Key Points: 
  • He suggests that more relief will be needed this summer, and although a recovery is eventually forecast, it is expected to be moderate.
  • We believe that even with the availability of a vaccine, it will take time for consumers to return to normal," Shulman writes.
  • As a companion research article to the forecast, UCLA Anderson Professor Ed Leamer asks, "Why Are Some Recoveries Rapid and Others Slow?"
  • More recently, the Forecast was credited as the first major U.S. economic forecasting group to declare the recession of 2001.

UCLA Anderson Forecast Says Economy May Be Weaker Than It Looks

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, June 5, 2019
Economic forecasting, Edward E. Leamer, UCLA Anderson School of Management, Leamer, Forecast, University of California, Los Angeles, Economy

The current Forecast opens with a paper on research by UCLA Anderson Professor Emeritus Edward Leamer that searches for recession precursors.

Key Points: 
  • The current Forecast opens with a paper on research by UCLA Anderson Professor Emeritus Edward Leamer that searches for recession precursors.
  • In one of his two papers included in this current report, UCLA Anderson Forecast senior economist David Shulman sees very modest changes to the March 2019 economic forecast.
  • More recently, the Forecast was credited as the first major U.S. economic forecasting group to declare the recession of 2001.
  • UCLA Anderson Office of Media Relations, (310) 206-7537, [email protected]
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