Australian Defence Force

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• The so-called Replicator initiative aims to work with defence and other tech companies to produce high volumes of affordable systems for all branches of the military.
• Military systems capable of various degrees of independent operation have become increasingly common over the past decade or so.

An idea whose time has come

• Many of these have been based on modifying commercial technology, which itself has become more capable, cheaper and more widely available.
• Military robots are an idea whose time has come.

Robots everywhere

• field attritable autonomous systems at scale of multiple thousands, in multiple domains, within the next 18 to 24 months.
• Finally, “multiple domains” means robots on land, at sea, in the air and in space.
• In short, robots everywhere for all kinds of tasks.

The robot mission

• China’s People’s Liberation Army is seen as having a significant advantage in terms of “mass”: it has more people, more tanks, more ships, more missiles and so on.
• The imagined future war of most concern is a hypothetical battle for Taiwan, which some postulate could soon begin.
• However, Replicator is also looking further ahead, and aims to institutionalise mass production of robots for the long term.

A brave new world?

• Optimists argue robots can be carefully programmed to follow rules, and in the heat and confusion of combat they may even obey better than humans.
• Pessimists counter by noting not all situations can be foreseen, and robots may well misunderstand and attack when they should not.
• Among earlier autonomous military systems, the Phalanx close-in point defence gun and the Patriot surface-to-air missile have both misperformed.

A global change

• China is an obvious candidate, with great strength in both artificial intelligence and combat drone production.
• However, because much of the technology behind autonomous military drones has been developed for civilian purposes, it is widely available and relatively cheap.
• Autonomous military systems are not just for the great powers, but could also soon be fielded by many middle and smaller powers.

• Who are the modern soldiers, and why do they choose to serve?
• Some of these answers can be found in existing research that defence forces have conducted over the last half century.
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Recruiting for a new model military

• Peacekeeping and humanitarian missions have also become more common than conventional warfare, with military forces frequently involved in disaster relief and recovery efforts.
• The lines around the purpose of a military are now increasingly blurred.
• New model armies need new model recruits.

Serving for thrills and adventure

• For example, they might like travelling for the journey itself, rather than to reach a destination.
• Independent of outcomes, some recruits are motivated to serve in the military by the idea of service itself.
• This could include having an inherent interest in the military, learning how to use high-tech machinery and a sense of adventure.

Service as a means to an end

• On the other end of this spectrum are those who are driven purely by extrinsic motives.
• This means doing something in the pursuit of a separate goal, such as financial compensation, or recognition earned through medals.
• In Meger’s interviews with foreign fighters on both sides of the Ukraine conflict, she found they were often extrinsically driven by ideology.

Serving for others vs for oneself

• Some soldiers are driven for a pro-social reason, as in they are serving for others.
• These people can be motivated by altruistic reasons, such as defending one’s country and loved ones at great risk and cost to themselves.
• But the research suggests most people will have a variety of motivations and lie somewhere between the extremes.

So, who is the ideal soldier?

• Defence forces have much to gain from recruiting volunteers with the right mix of intrinsic and pro-social motivations.
• The psychological evidence suggests that people with intrinsic motivations lead to a better quality of service.
• They are motivated by discipline, technical proficiency and professionalism, meaning they are more likely to perform in line with what society expects of them.
• But the evidence also suggests these motivations can be “crowded out” when excessive rewards are offered.

• This week, Australia announced its latest package of military and humanitarian support for Ukraine, totalling approximately A$110 million.
• The package comprises 70 military vehicles, which include 28 M113 armoured personnel carriers and other support vehicles (trucks, trailers and “special operations vehicles”).

Why has this latest package been criticised?

• The primary issue with the package is the supply of the M113 armoured personnel carriers.
• The M113 armoured personnel carriers that Australia is sending to Ukraine date back to the Vietnam War.
• Australia is in the process of retiring them in favour of a new, modern design of armoured personnel carrier.

Why are we not giving the Ukrainians what they want

• As Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said this week:
  On Hawkei, I know that has been raised, the advice is that would not be the best way to provide assistance to Ukraine.
• On Hawkei, I know that has been raised, the advice is that would not be the best way to provide assistance to Ukraine.
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We have other hardware we could offer

• Ukraine’s air force currently utilises old Soviet-era fighters, predominantly MiG-29s and Sukhoi Su-27s, which have been jerry-rigged to deploy Western munitions.
• After dragging its feet for months, the US recently announced it will approve allied exports of F-16 jets to Ukraine.
• First, it would require export approval from the US, which is required for all US military hardware to be resold or re-exported.
• However, this will be an issue for the F-16, or any other Western fighter jet sent to Ukraine’s air force.

Why Australia should do more

• The European Union, for instance, just announced it will increase its military aid fund to Ukraine by a further €3.5 billion (A$5.7 billion).
• But as Matthew Sussex, one of Australia’s leading Russia experts, has pointed out, Russia is a strategic competitor to Australia that will increasingly pivot its attention to the Indo-Pacific region.
• As such, our geographic distance is no excuse for weak support to a state attempting to counter an illegal and devastating invasion by Russia.