Sudan's conflict has its roots in three decades of elites fighting over oil and energy
Much of the international news coverage has focused on the clashing ambitions of the two generals.
- Much of the international news coverage has focused on the clashing ambitions of the two generals.
- Specifically, that differences over the integration of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces into the regular army triggered the current conflict on April 15, 2023.
- Drawing on this expertise, it is important to underline that three decades of contentious energy politics among rival elites forms a crucial background to today’s conflict.
How energy has shaped Sudan’s violent political economy
- In the late 1990s, amid a devastating civil war, President Omar Al-Bashir’s military-Islamist regime announced that energy would help birth a new economy.
- It had already paved the way for this reality, ethnically cleansing the areas where oil would be extracted.
- This enabled it to weather internal political crises, increase the budgets of its security agencies and to spend lavishly on infrastructure.
- That’s a phenomenal sum and testament to its belief that the dams would become the centrepiece of Sudan’s modernised political economy.
South Sudan secedes
- Then, in 2011, South Sudan seceded – along with three-quarters of Sudan’s oil reserves.
- Sudan was also plagued by power cuts as the dams proved very costly and produced much less than promised.
- Both the Sudan Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces deepened their involvement in Sudan’s political economy.
Soaring fuel, food and fertiliser prices
- This brought together Sudan Armed Forces, Rapid Support Forces and a civilian cabinet.
- Inflationary pressures worsened as food and energy prices rose.
- It also strengthened a growing regional black market in which fuel, wheat, sesame and much else was illicitly traded across borders.
Overlapping crises
- Amid these overlapping energy, food and political crises, Sudan’s Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces have been violently competing for control of the political economy’s remaining lucrative niches, such as key import-export channels.
- Both believe the survival of their respective institutions is essential to preventing the country from descending into total disintegration.
- In view of such contradictions and complexity, there are no easy solutions to Sudan’s multiple crises.