Domestic and international developments risk undermining Ukraine in a critical year
International attention, partially diverted by the war in Gaza, appears to be waning.
- International attention, partially diverted by the war in Gaza, appears to be waning.
- Furthermore, domestic politics within Ukraine are threatening to undermine its war aims.
Russian morale
- First, the Russian economy, while on a war footing, is not as strong as it appears.
- The growth in the Russian economy shocked most analysts, but it was primarily due to armament production.
- The precise effect of these casualties on Russian morale is debatable.
- The Russian army has been relying on non-Russian minorities to fight the war, a policy that appears to be an effort to maintain Putin’s popularity among Russian nationalists.
The need for smarter aid
- International aid was substantial early on as several states rushed to support Ukraine.
- This aid provided both material necessities and a significant morale boost.
- In the long term, however, the aid has proven problematic.
Justifying the expense of sending aid
- In some ways, it actually proves detrimental, as it causes soldiers to turn away from areas and techniques that led to success.
- The ongoing debates in the United States congress over providing aid to Ukraine partly reflect this issue.
- Rather, it’s important to acknowledge the limitations of the aid provided so far to Ukraine.
- Its importance is such that it’s influencing Ukrainian domestic politics, as Zaluzhnyi’s critical assessments on Ukraine’s needs finally provoked President Volodymyr Zelenskyy into action.
Domestic shakeups
- This included replacing the popular Zaluzhnyi with Col.-Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, who previously served as commander of the Ukrainian ground forces.
- Replacing Zaluzhnyi at such a critical juncture in the war signals to Ukraine’s allies that the war isn’t going well.
- The question now is if the unity of message was worth losing a valuable wartime general.
James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.