- US airstrikes on Iran-backed armed groups on February 2 have been anticipated for some time.
- Since the Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7, US forces in the Middle East have been targeted more than 150 times.
- These attacks, mainly on US bases in Iraq and Syria caused minimal damage thanks to US air defence capabilities.
Militant groups targeted
- There are about 40 militant groups in the region backed by Iran.
- These include high-profile groups such as Hamas, which carried out the October 7 attack in Israel as well as Hezbollah, which has been engaged in cross-border fire with Israel on the Lebanon border since October.
Iran provides a mix of training, intelligence, funding and weapons to groups within its self-described “axis of resistance”. But Tehran does not fully control the militias, who operate with varying degrees of autonomy, and who might be better seen as affiliates than proxies.
US political choices
- With the election year, Biden is also facing additional scrutiny from home on his foreign policy decisions.
- The calibrated airstrikes of the weekend will probably attract further criticism from both sides – for going too far or not far enough.
Gaza conflict
- But it’s undeniable that the crisis in Gaza has emboldened armed groups around the region, who have repeatedly used the war to justify their actions.
- The US, Egypt and Qatar have been mediating between Israel and Hamas to negotiate a deal that would see a halt of military operations in Gaza in return for a phased release of hostages.
Preventing regional war
- This suggests that Tehran – like Washington – is still keen to avoid a head-to-head conflict with the US.
- For the Biden administration, the aim of preventing a regional war is still the right objective, even – perhaps especially – in the face of rising tensions.
Julie M Norman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.