Strait of Malacca

• Less than 30 ships have been attacked by Houthis since they seized the Israeli-linked Galaxy Leader vessel in November.
• Unlike the 2021 Suez Canal blockage, traffic is still moving along the shortcut between Asia and Europe.
• Even if the path through the Red Sea to the Suez Canal becomes unusable, this is hardly unprecedented.

Transport choke points

• Choke points are narrow parts of main trade lanes, usually straits or canals.
• As the Houthis have shown, disrupting global trade at one of these choke points, does not require huge military power.
• Disabling the biggest choke points could have severe global consequences.
• Disruptions at choke points potentially have much larger effects around the world, as they affect traffic going to and from many countries.

Running out of routes

• Now water levels in the Panama Canal are so low that shipping capacity is severely limited.
• Shipping giant Maersk recently shifted cargo to the railway line running in parallel to the canal.
• What is left for most who are keen to avoid the Red Sea is the long detour around Africa.

Strait of Hormuz

• After Houthi attacks continued despite warnings, the military actions have sent a signal that free navigation will be protected despite the high cost.
• The Strait of Hormuz has a long history of tensions.
• The justification for the current military actions against the Houthis is likely to also contain a nod to this.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.