Minsk

• Led by South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa, the delegation included leaders and senior officials from Congo-Brazzaville, Comoros, Egypt, Senegal, Uganda and Zambia.
• Their plan was based on establishing a ceasefire “through negotiations and diplomatic means”.
• An earlier initiative by the Vatican was rejected by Zelensky immediately after his meeting with Pope Francis on May 13.

The China card

• Officially announced on February 24 2023, the first anniversary of the invasion, western leaders were not particularly enthusiastic – but did not reject it out of hand either.
• Zelensky signalled cautious optimism about China’s engagement in mediation after his hour-long phone call with Xi at the end of April.

West still favour’s Kyiv plan

• The western favourite, so far, remains the Ukrainian peace plan.
• This was first presented as a five-point plan by Zelensky at the UN General Assembly meeting in September 2022.
• Then, and also at the May 2023 G7 summit in Hiroshima, Zelensky proposed further discussions at a global peace summit.

Mutual distrust

• Notwithstanding these problems, pressure on both sides to start negotiating an end to the war will continue to grow.
• The African peace mission was significantly motivated by the fact that the countries on the continent have massively suffered from the economic consequences of the war.
• These are extremely important engagements because they create incentives for Beijing not to throw its full weight behind Moscow.
• The more successful Ukraine’s counteroffensive, the stronger its position in the run-up to negotiations and at the negotiation table.