- Shocks to the shortages variable are constructed as deviations in the values from the sample mean.
- Shocks to the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio (labour market variable) are constructed
as the actual value minus the value in the fourth quarter of 2019.
- ?Indirect impact of energy prices on non-energy inflation? is the sum of the indirect effects of oil,
gas and electricity prices.
- 3
Historical
Rubric comparison of inflation episodes in the euro area ? headline and core
Headline
Core
(percentage points)
(percentage points)
Current euro area episode
Past global episodes
Current euro area episode
Past global episodes
2
2
0
0
-2
-4
-2
-6
-8
-4
-10
-12
-24
-18
-12
-6
0
6
12
18
-6
24
Months around inflation peak
-24
-18
-12
-6
0
6
12
Months around inflation peak
18
Sources: BIS, Eurostat and ECB calculations.
- The dark blue line represents the latest developments in headline and core inflation for the euro area, relative to the October
2022 peak.
- Non-energy industrial goods inflation refers to a panel of all euro area countries, while services inflation refers to
a panel of 30 AEs and 28 EMEs.
- Month = 0 is when the headline inflation value is at the highest during that particular episode.
- The dark blue line represents the latest developments
in non-energy industrial goods and services inflation for the euro area, relative to the October 2022 peak.
- unprocessed
food and energy
HICPX
8
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
Feb-24
Jul-24
1.0
Dec-24 Feb-24
Jul-24
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
Adjusted
measures
Difference
4
3
2
1
0
0
0
Feb-24 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24
Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24
Feb-24 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24
Feb-24
Dec-24
Sources: Eurostat, March 2024 ECB staff short-term inflation outlook, Consensus
Economics, Bloomberg and ECB calculations.
- The ?adjusted?
measures abstract from energy and supply-bottleneck shocks using a large SVAR, see
Ba?bura, Bobeica and Mart?nez-Hern?ndez (2023), ?What drives core inflation?
- Notes: 5-days moving average risk-neutral
probabilities of inflation implied by five-year and tenyear zero-coupon inflation options.
- 16
8
12
Quarters
16
20
Policy
Rubriccounterfactuals
Interest rate under alternative
counterfactuals
Counterfactual impacts on
Inflation
(percentages per annum)
(annual percentage change)
Baseline
Earlier and longer
Earlier, longer and higher
8
Baseline
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
2021Q4
2022Q4
2023Q4
2024Q4
Earlier, longer and higher
10
2
8
0
6
-2
4
-4
2
-6
0
-8
-2
2025Q4
Earlier and longer
Output gap
(p.p.
- The RHS chart displays the impact on inflation (first panel) and output gap (second panel) for each of the hypothetical alternative paths of the interest
rate.
- As a caveat, financial feedback loops as well as feedback loops between inflation expectations and inflation are not activated.
