Survey of Professional Forecasters

Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters in the third quarter of 2021

Retrieved on: 
Sunday, July 25, 2021

23 July 2021

Key Points: 
  • 23 July 2021

    In the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2021, HICP inflation expectations stood at 1.9%, 1.5% and 1.5% for 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively.

  • Compared with the previous round for the second quarter of 2021, these were revised upward by 0.3 percentage points for 2021, 0.2 percentage points for 2022 and 0.05 percentage points for 2023 (unchanged rounded to the first decimal point).
  • Longer-term inflation expectations for 2026 stood at 1.8%, revised up from 1.7% for 2025 in the previous round.
  • These expectations imply that economic activity will surpass its pre-pandemic level (fourth quarter of 2019) in the fourth quarter of 2021, one quarter earlier than previously expected.

Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters in the second quarter of 2021

Retrieved on: 
Sunday, April 25, 2021

23 April 2021

Key Points: 
  • 23 April 2021

    In the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2021, HICP inflation expectations stood at 1.6%, 1.3% and 1.5% for 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively.

  • Compared with the previous round for the first quarter of 2021, these were revised upward by 0.7 percentage points for 2021 but unchanged for 2022 and 2023.
  • Respondents reported that they considered the factors behind the upward revision for 2021 to be largely temporary.
  • Indicators of the uncertainty surrounding expectations for the main macroeconomic variables mostly eased somewhat but remained elevated by historical standards.

Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters in the first quarter of 2021

Retrieved on: 
Saturday, January 23, 2021

PRESS RELEASE

Key Points: 
  • PRESS RELEASE

    Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters in the first quarter of 2021

    22 January 2021

    Respondents to the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2021 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 0.9%, 1.3% and 1.5% for 2021, 2022 and 2023 respectively.

  • Average longer-term inflation expectations (which, like all other longer-term expectations in this round of the SPF, refer to 2025) remained at 1.7%.
  • The expectations of SPF respondents for euro area real GDP growth averaged 4.4%, 3.7% and 1.9% for 2021, 2022 and 2023 respectively.
  • These figures represent revisions from the previous round amounting to -0.9percentage points for 2021 and +1.1 percentage points for 2022.

Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters in the first quarter of 2021

Retrieved on: 
Friday, January 22, 2021

PRESS RELEASE

Key Points: 
  • PRESS RELEASE

    Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters in the first quarter of 2021

    22 January 2021

    Respondents to the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2021 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 0.9%, 1.3% and 1.5% for 2021, 2022 and 2023 respectively.

  • Average longer-term inflation expectations (which, like all other longer-term expectations in this round of the SPF, refer to 2025) remained at 1.7%.
  • The expectations of SPF respondents for euro area real GDP growth averaged 4.4%, 3.7% and 1.9% for 2021, 2022 and 2023 respectively.
  • These figures represent revisions from the previous round amounting to -0.9percentage points for 2021 and +1.1 percentage points for 2022.

Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters in the fourth quarter of 2020

Retrieved on: 
Saturday, October 31, 2020

PRESS RELEASE

Key Points: 
  • PRESS RELEASE

    Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters in the fourth quarter of 2020

    30 October 2020

    Respondents to the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2020 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 0.3%, 0.9% and 1.3% for 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively.

  • These results represent downward revisions of 0.1 percentage points for both 2020 and 2021.
  • The expectations of SPF respondents for euro area real GDP growth averaged -7.8%, 5.3% and 2.6% for 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively.
  • These figures represent revisions from the previous round amounting to +0.5percentage points for 2020, -0.4 percentage points for 2021 and +0.2 percentage points for 2022.

Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters in the fourth quarter of 2020

Retrieved on: 
Saturday, October 31, 2020

PRESS RELEASE

Key Points: 
  • PRESS RELEASE

    Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters in the fourth quarter of 2020

    30 October 2020

    Respondents to the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2020 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 0.3%, 0.9% and 1.3% for 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively.

  • These results represent downward revisions of 0.1 percentage points for both 2020 and 2021.
  • The expectations of SPF respondents for euro area real GDP growth averaged -7.8%, 5.3% and 2.6% for 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively.
  • These figures represent revisions from the previous round amounting to +0.5percentage points for 2020, -0.4 percentage points for 2021 and +0.2 percentage points for 2022.

Results of the Q3 2020 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Retrieved on: 
Saturday, July 18, 2020

PRESS RELEASE

Key Points: 
  • PRESS RELEASE

    Results of the Q3 2020 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

    17 July 2020

    Respondents to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2020 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 0.4%, 1.0% and 1.3% for 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively.

  • These results represent downward revisions of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points for 2021 and 2022.
  • The expectations of SPF respondents for euro area real GDP growth averaged -8.3%, 5.7% and 2.4% for 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively.
  • These represent revisions from the previous round of -2.8percentage points for 2020 and +1.4 and +0.7 percentage points for 2021 and 2022.

Results of the Q3 2020 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Retrieved on: 
Friday, July 17, 2020

PRESS RELEASE

Key Points: 
  • PRESS RELEASE

    Results of the Q3 2020 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

    17 July 2020

    Respondents to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2020 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 0.4%, 1.0% and 1.3% for 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively.

  • These results represent downward revisions of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points for 2021 and 2022.
  • The expectations of SPF respondents for euro area real GDP growth averaged -8.3%, 5.7% and 2.4% for 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively.
  • These represent revisions from the previous round of -2.8percentage points for 2020 and +1.4 and +0.7 percentage points for 2021 and 2022.

Results of the Q2 2020 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, May 5, 2020

PRESS RELEASE

Key Points: 
  • PRESS RELEASE

    Results of the Q2 2020 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

    4 May 2020

    Respondents to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2020 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 0.4%, 1.2% and 1.4% for 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively.

  • These results represent downward revisions of 0.8, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively.
  • SPF respondents expectations for growth in euro area real GDP averaged -5.5%, 4.3% and 1.7% for 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively.
  • These represent large revisions from the previous round of -6.6percentage points for 2020 and +3.1 percentage points for 2021.

Results of the Q2 2020 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Retrieved on: 
Monday, May 4, 2020

PRESS RELEASE

Key Points: 
  • PRESS RELEASE

    Results of the Q2 2020 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

    4 May 2020

    Respondents to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2020 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 0.4%, 1.2% and 1.4% for 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively.

  • These results represent downward revisions of 0.8, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively.
  • SPF respondents expectations for growth in euro area real GDP averaged -5.5%, 4.3% and 1.7% for 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively.
  • These represent large revisions from the previous round of -6.6percentage points for 2020 and +3.1 percentage points for 2021.