Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters in the third quarter of 2021
23 July 2021
- 23 July 2021
In the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2021, HICP inflation expectations stood at 1.9%, 1.5% and 1.5% for 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively.
- Compared with the previous round for the second quarter of 2021, these were revised upward by 0.3 percentage points for 2021, 0.2 percentage points for 2022 and 0.05 percentage points for 2023 (unchanged rounded to the first decimal point).
- Longer-term inflation expectations for 2026 stood at 1.8%, revised up from 1.7% for 2025 in the previous round.
- These expectations imply that economic activity will surpass its pre-pandemic level (fourth quarter of 2019) in the fourth quarter of 2021, one quarter earlier than previously expected.