- The worrying findings, based on temperature records contained in sea sponge skeletons, suggest global climate change has progressed much further than previously thought.
- Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions drive global warming.
- To date, estimates of upper ocean warming have been mainly based on sea-surface temperature records, however these date back only about 180 years.
- Earth may in fact have already reached at least 1.7°C warming since pre-industrial times – a deeply troubling discovery.
Getting a gauge on ocean heat
- Oceans cover more than 70% of Earth’s surface and absorb an enormous amount of heat and carbon dioxide.
- Global surface temperatures are traditionally calculated by averaging the temperature of water at the sea surface, and the air just above the land surface.
- This makes it more difficult to accurately reconstruct stable baseline ocean temperatures.
- But what if there was a way to precisely gauge ocean temperatures over centuries in the past?
Studying a special sponge
- But they grow at a much slower rate and can live for many hundreds of years.
- This means sclerosponges can provide a detailed diary of sea temperatures, down to a resolution of just 0.1°C.
- We studied the sponge species Ceratoporella nicholsoni.
- We looked at temperatures going back 300 years, to see whether the current time period which defines pre-industrial temperatures was accurate.
- The sponge records showed nearly constant temperatures from 1700 to 1790 and from 1840 to 1860 (with a gap in the middle due to volcanic cooling).
What does this mean for global warming?
- It shows human-caused ocean warming began at least several decades earlier than previously assumed by the IPCC.
- Long-term climate change is commonly measured against the average warming over the 30 years from 1961 to 1990, as well as warming in more recent decades.
- Add to that the average 0.8°C global warming from 1990 to recent years, and the Earth may have warmed on average by at least 1.7°C since pre-industrial times.
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We must act now
Our revised estimates suggest climate change is at a more advanced stage than we thought. This is cause for great concern. It appears that humanity has missed its chance to limit global warming to 1.5°C and has a very challenging task ahead to keep warming below 2°C. This underscores the urgent need to halve global emissions by 2030.
Malcolm McCulloch receives funding from the Australian Research Council.