Weather forecast accuracy is crucial in a heat wave – 1 degree can mean the difference between life and death
Even a 1-degree difference in a forecast’s accuracy can be the difference between life and death, our research shows.
- Even a 1-degree difference in a forecast’s accuracy can be the difference between life and death, our research shows.
- As economists, we have studied how people use forecasts to manage weather risks.
- We found that when the forecasts underplayed the risk, even small forecast errors led to more deaths.
Forecasts that are too mild lead to more deaths
- We examined data on every day’s deaths, weather and National Weather Service forecast in every U.S county from 2005 to 2017 to analyze the impact of those forecasts on human survival.
- We then compared deaths in each county over the week following a day with accurate forecasts to deaths in the same county over the week following a day with inaccurate forecasts but the same weather.
- Both summer days that were hotter than forecast and winter days that were colder had more deaths.
People are paying attention
- People do pay attention to forecasts and adjust their activities.
- The American Time Use Survey, conducted continuously for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows what Americans across the country are doing on any given day.
- That could be due in part to having less flexibility to act on forecasts, or not having access to forecasts.
The value of better forecasts
- So, what is the value of accurate forecasts?
- We combined our theoretical model with federal cost-benefit estimates of how people value improvements in their chances of survival.
- From those, we estimated people’s willingness to pay for better forecasts.
- Past improvements have come from better models, better observations and better computers.