Wood drying

• If you’ve been out and about the past few days, you may have noticed Australia is experiencing an unseasonably warm winter.
• It’s been t-shirt weather across many parts of the country’s east, including Sydney where temperatures topped 25℃ on Sunday.
• Should we just enjoy the pleasant conditions, or is it a troubling sign of what’s to come under climate change?

The nice weather, explained

• Since early July, warmer and drier conditions have dominated, due to a high pressure system sitting stubbornly over Australia at the moment.
• For example, daytime temperatures in Canberra in July – historically known for its cold winters – were the warmest on record, despite frequent frosty mornings.
• The high pressure has caused the air over the continent’s interior to warm.
• This is similar to the weather pattern we see in summer when cities such as Adelaide and Melbourne experience their hottest days.
• Read more:
  Global warming to bring record hot year by 2028 – probably our first above 1.5°C limit

Looking north

• Ocean temperatures are well above previous record highs for this time of year.
• Worryingly, a rapid analysis by international experts suggests the extreme heat should not be viewed as unusual, given the effects of climate change.
• For example, it says China’s recent record-breaking heatwave should now be expected about once in every five years, on average.
• But the study found climate change significantly contributed to the recent heatwaves in China, North America and Europe.

A sign of what’s to come

• But Australia’s temperatures are also unusually high for winter – and this is also cause for concern.
• Warm winters in Australia can negatively affect some parts of the economy, including the ski industry.
• The warm, dry conditions may also lead to an earlier start to the fire season in Australia’s southeast.

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• Extreme heat has been breaking records across Europe, Asia and North America, with millions of people sweltering in heat and humidity well above “normal” for days on end.
• Death Valley hit a temperature of 128 degrees Fahrenheit (53.3 degrees Celsius) on July 16, 2023 – not quite the world’s hottest day on record, but close.
• Heat waves are becoming supercharged as the climate changes – lasting longer, becoming more frequent and getting just plain hotter.

The limits of human adaptability

• Scientists and other observers have become alarmed about the increasing frequency of extreme heat paired with high humidity.
• In the Middle East, Asaluyeh, Iran, recorded an extremely dangerous maximum wet-bulb temperature of 92.7 F (33.7 C) on July 16, 2023 – above our measured upper limit of human adaptability to humid heat.
• It was not until recently that this limit was tested on humans in laboratory settings.

The PSU H.E.A.T. Project

• These experiments provide insight into which combinations of temperature and humidity begin to become harmful for even the healthiest humans.
• Each participant swallowed a small telemetry pill that continuously monitored their deep body or core temperature.
• They then sat in an environmental chamber, moving just enough to simulate the minimal activities of daily living, such as showering, cooking and eating.
• That would equal 87 F at 100% humidity or 100 F (38 C) at 60% humidity.

Dry vs. humid environments

• In hot, dry environments the critical environmental limits aren’t defined by wet-bulb temperatures, because almost all the sweat the body produces evaporates, which cools the body.
• However, the amount humans can sweat is limited, and we also gain more heat from the higher air temperatures.
• Keep in mind that these cutoffs are based solely on keeping your body temperature from rising excessively.

How to stay safe

• W. Larry Kenney receives research grant funding from the National Institutes of Health/National Institute on Aging.
• Daniel Vecellio is supported by a training grant from the National Institute on Aging through the Penn State Center for Healthy Aging.
• Rachel Cottle is supported by a training grant from the National Institute on Aging through the Penn State Center for Healthy Aging.

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