Distress

• Numerous opinion polls suggest the ANC will fall below 50% of the vote nationally for the first time, providing opportunities for opposition coalitions.
• A party needs to win 50% or more of the seats in parliament to form a government on its own.
• Adding to the moment was the fact that this was the last state of the nation address of Ramaphosa’s term.
• In his 105-minute address Ramaphosa tried to remind his audience of the government’s achievements over the past three decades of democracy.

The contested record

• Poverty: In 1994 71% of South Africa’s population lived in poverty; today 55% do, he said, citing World Bank figures.
• Employment: The president devoted paragraphs of his speech to job opportunities created by various government programmes.
• Real unemployment – the expanded definition – is around 42%, up from 15% in 1994.
• Energy: On the continuing power cuts Ramaphosa pledged that
  the worst is behind us and an end to load-shedding is in reach.
• But evidence shows land reform has a mixed record of successes and failures.
• Health: the president spoke of a new academic hospital under construction in Limpopo province.

What was left unsaid

• In one ill-advised one in 2019, the president fantasised about bullet trains, when his audience were desperately waiting for the resumption of service on slow train commuting routes.
• The 2024 speech offers fertile material for opposition parties to score points against the ANC.
• It will be more of the same from both sides all the way to voting day.

Keith Gottschalk is a member of the African National Congress, but writes this piece in his professional capacity as a political scientist.

• Kramer Levin is pleased to announce that New York-based partners Daniel M. Eggermann and Rachael Ringer have been named co-heads of the firm’s Distressed Investing practice.
• “The depth and breadth of our restructuring bench — combined with our strength and continued growth in finance and litigation — have driven the growth of our Distressed Investing practice.
• Kramer Levin’s Distressed Investing practice represents banks, hedge funds and other financial institutions in all types and stages of distressed investing.
• The firm’s Distressed Investing practice is complemented by its Special Situations practice and strong Bankruptcy Litigation and Investigations and Financial Services Litigation groups, both of which experienced significant growth when Kramer Levin combined with Washington, DC, litigation boutique Robbins, Russell, Englert, Orseck & Untereiner LLP in 2022.

• NEW YORK and LONDON, Jan. 8, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- 9fin, a leading provider of data, news and predictive analysis for debt capital markets, has today announced that Max Frumes has joined the company to oversee global coverage of distressed debt and restructuring.
• Frumes, who co-authored one of the definitive books on distressed debt — The Caesars Palace Coup — joins from LevFin Insights, where he ran the special situations news team globally.
• As well as expanding 9fin's coverage of US distressed, Frumes will oversee the company's existing European distressed team.
• Max Frumes, Global Head of Distressed and Restructuring at 9fin, commented: "I couldn't think of a better platform than 9fin on which to be growing another leading news team in distressed and restructuring.

• Preston Capital LLC (“Preston” or the “Firm”), an Aliso Viejo-based longevity asset manager announced today two key hires as the Firm launches a new commingled investment vehicle.
• Joining Preston are David Posnick, former Senior Managing Director at Blackstone, Inc. ( BX ) and Anne Buchanan, former Head of Distribution for Obra Capital (formerly known as Vida Capital).
• Mr. Posnick had been with Blackstone Credit (previously known as GSO Capital Partners) since 2007.
• “Having Anne join Preston was one of the easiest decisions we’ve ever made,” remarked Jonathan Hogan, Preston’s President and CFO.