Will the supply-and-confidence deal between the Liberals and NDP survive in 2024?
The deal eased the uncertainty facing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s minority government while allowing the NDP to take credit for some of the government’s social policy announcements.
- The deal eased the uncertainty facing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s minority government while allowing the NDP to take credit for some of the government’s social policy announcements.
- That’s because of the Trudeau government’s failure in 2023 to deliver on pharmacare, a central aspect of the March 2022 agreement.
Past agreements
- Inter-party agreements in Canadian Parliament are extremely rare.
- Such supply-and-confidence agreements are common elsewhere in the Commonwealth, but largely unprecedented in Canadian politics.
Three factors at play
- First, since Trudeau became prime minister in late 2015, the Liberals and NDP have moved closer together.
- The two parties share more policies than in the past, especially in the area of social policy.
- The COVID-19 pandemic, in particular, provided an opportunity for greater co-operation in the design and implementation of temporary and expansive emergency measures.
- Second, public support over the last four years has left the Liberals and the NDP in a tricky situation.
Political tensions
- But currently, growing tensions between the Liberals and the NDP make the future of the agreement increasingly uncertain.
- That’s largely because of the recent sharp decline in public support for the Liberals.
- Singh has suggested the Liberals have only agreed to enact progressive policies that truly help Canadians when forced to do so by the NDP.
Death of the deal ahead?
- Those types of agreements are much more common in Canada’s minority parliaments than formal legislative coalitions like the existing supply-and-confidence agreement.
- The question for the NDP is whether it’s better off electorally with or without the agreement.
Daniel Béland receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. Louis Massé receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.