Make

• The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is seeking a third term in office.
• If one was to go by economic growth figures alone, the Modi government’s performance has been impressive.
• A series of high-profile corruption cases led to a loss of investor confidence in the Indian economy.
• According to the International Monetary Fund, India’s economy is projected to grow at a rate of 6.5% in 2024.
• That is higher than China’s projected growth of 4.6%, and exceeds that of any other large economy.

All smoke and mirrors?

• India’s economic performance is hard to assess as the government has not published official data on poverty and employment since 2011.
• This has led analysts to use alternate data sources that are not as reliable as the large and nationally representative consumption and employment surveys of the Indian government’s statistical agency.
• The results were based on a large consumption survey carried out by the Indian government.

The new welfarism

• The Aadhaar rollout, in particular, has allowed national and state governments to distribute benefits to the poor directly through their Aadhaar-linked bank accounts.
• It has also helped to curb leakage in the delivery of subsidies to poor households, which has long been the bane of India’s welfare delivery.
• Essential goods such as toilets and cooking cylinders, which are normally privately provisioned, were supplied in large numbers by the government.
• This led to what Indian economist and the former Chief Economic Advisor to the government, Arvind Subramanian, called “New Welfarism” in India.

The lack of good jobs

• But it has not been as successful in creating productive jobs for the large proportion of India’s labour force who are unskilled and poor.
• Around 40% of workers remain in agriculture, and only about 20% work in manufacturing jobs or business services such as IT.
• The weak record of the Modi government in creating jobs is surprising given that it has floated many initiatives to kickstart manufacturing.

Kunal Sen receives funding from ESRC, British Academy and DFID.