Pessimism

Elevated Mortgage Rates Push Housing Sentiment Even Lower

Retrieved on: 
Monday, October 9, 2023

WASHINGTON, Oct. 9, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) decreased by 2.4 points in September to 64.5, as elevated mortgage rates further dampened already-pessimistic consumer housing sentiment. Five of the HPSI's six components decreased month over month, including the components measuring perceived homebuying and home-selling conditions. In September, 16% of consumers reported that it's a good time to buy a home, matching the all-time survey low set last year. Additionally, 63% said it was a good time to sell a home, down 3 percentage points compared to the prior month. Only 17% of consumers indicated that they expect mortgage rates to go down over the next 12 months. Overall, the full index is up 3.7 points year over year.

Key Points: 
  • Consumers Now Point to Mortgage Rates, not Home Prices, as Primary Hindrance to Affordability
    WASHINGTON, Oct. 9, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) decreased by 2.4 points in September to 64.5, as elevated mortgage rates further dampened already-pessimistic consumer housing sentiment.
  • Only 17% of consumers indicated that they expect mortgage rates to go down over the next 12 months.
  • This indicates to us that many homeowners are probably not eager to give up their 'locked-in' lower mortgage rates anytime soon, but it also may reflect the worry of some homeowners that sale values might be suppressed slightly if the pool of qualified homebuyers is constrained by elevated mortgage rates."
  • Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 18% to 17%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up remained unchanged at 46%.

New IBD/TIPP Poll Shows Economic Optimism Plummeted in October

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, October 3, 2023

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index , a leading national poll on consumer confidence, fell 16.0% in October.

Key Points: 
  • The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index , a leading national poll on consumer confidence, fell 16.0% in October.
  • After climbing to a reading of 43.2 last month, the index plummeted to 36.3 this month.
  • The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has established a strong track record of foreshadowing the confidence indicators issued later each month by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board.
  • We’re clearly not out of the woods when it comes to the economy.”
    The flagship IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components.

Survey Finds Chinese Investors Remain Pessimistic towards Real Estate Market

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, September 27, 2023

BEIJING, Sept. 27, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- CKGSB Investor Sentiment Index 's Q3 report records continued pessimism among Chinese investors towards the real estate market.

Key Points: 
  • BEIJING, Sept. 27, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- CKGSB Investor Sentiment Index 's Q3 report records continued pessimism among Chinese investors towards the real estate market.
  • It also finds investors' expectations for China's A-shares to be slightly lower than the previous quarter, but much higher than last October.
  • Investors' expectations for the real estate market in Q3, however, have deteriorated.
  • Individual investors have remained pessimistic about real estate since August 2020.

Survey Finds Chinese Investors Remain Pessimistic towards Real Estate Market

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, September 27, 2023

BEIJING, Sept. 27, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- CKGSB Investor Sentiment Index 's Q3 report records continued pessimism among Chinese investors towards the real estate market.

Key Points: 
  • BEIJING, Sept. 27, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- CKGSB Investor Sentiment Index 's Q3 report records continued pessimism among Chinese investors towards the real estate market.
  • It also finds investors' expectations for China's A-shares to be slightly lower than the previous quarter, but much higher than last October.
  • Investors' expectations for the real estate market in Q3, however, have deteriorated.
  • Individual investors have remained pessimistic about real estate since August 2020.

73% Of Gen Z Workers More Optimistic About Career Prospects Today Compared to 2022

Retrieved on: 
Monday, September 25, 2023

BOULDER, Colo., Sept. 25, 2023 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ -- According to FlexJobs'® Generations at Work Report, 73% of Gen Z workers said they feel more optimistic about their career prospects today than they did at this time last year. Comparatively lower, 43% of millennials said they are more optimistic and only 31% of Gen Xers reported feeling more optimistic.

Key Points: 
  • Comparatively lower, 43% of millennials said they are more optimistic and only 31% of Gen Xers reported feeling more optimistic.
  • While 39% of Gen Xers and one-third of millennials said they are actually more pessimistic about their career today compared to last year, only 14% of Gen Z said the same.
  • 73% of Gen Z feel more optimistic about their career prospects today than they did around this time last year.
  • Following a similar trend, 66% of Gen Z thinks the job market is better for job seekers today compared to this time last year.

EnerSys Awarded $92M Long-Term Contract With the United States Navy for Thin Plate Pure Lead (TPPL) Batteries

Retrieved on: 
Monday, September 18, 2023

EnerSys (NYSE: ENS), the global leader in stored energy solutions for industrial applications, has recently been selected to supply its proprietary Thin Plate Pure Lead (TPPL) batteries to the United States Navy (USN) as main storage batteries on all four classes of USN Nuclear Submarines.

Key Points: 
  • EnerSys (NYSE: ENS), the global leader in stored energy solutions for industrial applications, has recently been selected to supply its proprietary Thin Plate Pure Lead (TPPL) batteries to the United States Navy (USN) as main storage batteries on all four classes of USN Nuclear Submarines.
  • This production contract is a continuation of a supplier relationship in which EnerSys has supplied its TPPL batteries for US Navy submarines for over fifteen years from its highly automated facility in Warrensburg, Missouri.
  • “The mission-critical nature of our energy storage solutions is at the foundation of our partnership with the US Navy.
  • Although EnerSys does not make forward-looking statements unless it believes it has a reasonable basis for doing so, EnerSys cannot guarantee their accuracy.

CFOs Raise Their Outlook for North America's Economy and Test the Waters With GenAI on a Budget: Deloitte CFO Signals™ Survey 3Q 2023

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, September 12, 2023

Each quarter, CFO Signals™ tracks the thinking and actions of leading CFOs representing North America's largest and most influential companies.

Key Points: 
  • Each quarter, CFO Signals™ tracks the thinking and actions of leading CFOs representing North America's largest and most influential companies.
  • Since 2010, the survey has provided key insights into the business environment, company priorities and expectations, finance priorities, and CFOs' priorities.
  • The CFO Signals survey for the third quarter of 2023 was conducted between July 31, 2023, and August 20, 2023.
  • For more information about Deloitte CFO Signals or to inquire about participating in the survey, please contact [email protected] .

Economic Optimism Is on the Rise, According to the Latest IBD/TIPP Poll

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, September 6, 2023

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index , a leading national poll on consumer confidence, today showed some positive momentum.

Key Points: 
  • The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index , a leading national poll on consumer confidence, today showed some positive momentum.
  • The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has established a strong track record of foreshadowing the confidence indicators issued later each month by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board.
  • The poll was conducted online using TechnoMetrica’s network of panels to provide the sample.
  • The Presidential Leadership Index was up across the board, with its overall reading climbing 5.7% over last month.

Slower ageing, but slower economic growth: the Intergenerational Report in 7 charts

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, August 24, 2023

The Australian government has just released the latest iteration of its Intergenerational Report, the sixth since the first was published in 2002.

Key Points: 
  • The Australian government has just released the latest iteration of its Intergenerational Report, the sixth since the first was published in 2002.
  • Each provides a snapshot of the sort of Australia in which future generations will find themselves in 40 years’ time, should current government policies continue.

1. Increasing optimism about ageing

    • The chart below shows the projections in each of the six reports for the proportion of the population aged 65 and over.
    • And ageing will slow further if net migration climbs higher than the 235,000 per year assumed in the latest report.
    • A more reasonable migration assumption might be that it will in fact increase alongside increases in the total population.

2. Increased optimism about willing workers

    • While participation is still expected to drop, the latest projection is for more of a glide than a dive, leaving participation higher in 2063 than it was in 2002.
    • As the report puts it, participation is projected to decline from a record high of 66.6% in 2023 to 63.8% by 2063.
    • More of us will be older and less able to work, but within most age groups, more of us will be in work.

3. Increased optimism about the cost of the pension

    • Spending on pensions is projected to fall rather than climb as a share of the economy, falling from 2.3% to 2% of GDP.
    • While in other countries pensions are more generous and increase with earnings, in Australia the age pension is more modest and reduces with means.
    • By pairing the age pension with superannuation, which increases people’s means in retirement, pension spending falls.

4. Increased optimism about spending on health

    • Government spending on health as a proportion of GDP is still projected to increase, from 4.6% now to 6.2% in 2063, but is expected to remain well short of the first intergenerational report’s projection of more than 8% by 2042.
    • Only 40% of this projected increase in health spending is due to ageing, which ought not to be the least bit surprising.

5. Increased pessimism about the cost of aged care


    Spending on aged care is set to grow more than many other types of spending, albeit from a low base. The Intergenerational Report has it doubling from 1.1% of GDP in to 2.5% in 2063. The projection may well be an underestimate. Governments are yet to fully respond to demands for greater quality of care set out in the report of the royal commission into aged care quality and safety.

6. Increased pessimism about living standards

    • Productivity growth, and assumptions about future productivity growth, have continued to decline with almost every intergenerational report.
    • The assumption for long-term productivity growth in this report is 1.2%, down from 1.75% in the 2002 intergenerational report.
    • The 2002 intergenerational report had living standards (GDP per person) climbing 90% in 40 years.

7. A deteriorating Commonwealth budget

    • While slower ageing means this report predicts the government’s future budget deficits will be lower than those projected in all previous reports bar one, the budget is expected to be in a deepening deficit for much of the next 40 years.
    • Read more:
      The intergenerational report sets the scene for 2063 – but what is it?