Canada Pension Plan

• Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, while not explicitly advocating for outright independence, continues to promote increased provincial autonomy.
• A shift from a theoretical discussion to actively pursuing an independence referendum by Smith or her successors could have dramatic economic consequences for Alberta and Canada similar to the impact separatist movements have had in other parts of the world, including in Spain and the United Kingdom.

‘Alberta Agenda’

• Among other changes, the letter proposed replacing the Canada Pension Plan with an Alberta Pension Plan and establishing an Alberta police force.
• While the majority (61.9 per cent) voted yes, such a Constitutional change cannot be made without support from six other provinces.
• Smith has kept key elements of the Alberta Agenda front and centre during her first year as premier.

Similarities to Spain

• Traditionally, the province of Québec in Canada and the Basque region in Spain have been the primary regions pushing for independence.
• However, Catalonia’s separatist movement in Spain, which has now surpassed the Basque movement, represents a rapid rise of the kind that could conceivably be seen in Alberta.
• The Basque region has experienced strong economic growth, while the fallout from the events of 2017 seems to have dampened Catalonia’s economic prosperity compared to other regions in Spain.

Brexit parallels

• The Brexit referendum, driven by the U.K.
• Independence Party and conservative factions under David Cameron, prime minister at the time, was intended to quell separatist sentiments.
• Brexit has been a major factor in the U.K.’s poor economic performance in recent years, and 57 per cent of the British public now want to rejoin the EU.
• In the case of both Catalonia and Brexit, it hasn’t just been regional economies that have suffered.

‘No plan’

• Additional challenges include restructuring trade relationships, establishing an independent financial system and addressing potential investor dissent.
• Both the Alberta and federal governments must act to address western alienation and prevent a catastrophic scenario.
• That requires not just policy adjustments but a commitment to constructive dialogue and inclusive efforts to resolve these issues.

Carlos Freire-Gibb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.