Public opinion

• Democracy advocates cheered the defeat of the Law and Justice party in Poland and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s breakthrough victory over his populist adversary in Brazil.
• Read more:
  Lula and the world: what to expect from the new Brazilian foreign policy

  But populists won big victories in 2023 too — and made comebacks.

• Donald Trump, despite his numerous indictments and allegations he incited an insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, began a second run for president.

A new age of extremism

• Today, we have seemingly passed from the age of extremes into an age of extremism.
• Low-trust voters feel they’ve been misled and reject the traditional policy options offered by social democratic parties.
• With the decline in support for traditional left-wing parties in the Global North, voters are sending anti-establishment messages to the parties of the right.

Binary voting and wedge issues

• Public opinion research from the Economist Intelligence Unit, Freedom House, the Pew Research Center and Sweden’s V-Dem Institute warn that there are fewer undecided voters than ever.
• Modern politics is increasingly an exercise in what’s known as binary voting.
• Amassing on land borders and crossing perilously by sea, migrants and refugees perfectly illustrate the “us versus them” mindset.

Asylum-seekers and the anxious voter

• The answer is simple: in the skewed world view of nationalists, migrants are by definition “cheaters”.
• Far-right populists campaign on the false belief that refugee-seekers are also corrupting the traditional way of life, taking jobs and driving up the cost of living.
• Increasingly extreme populists have come to power promising to deal with the problem, but they’ve failed to provide any effective solutions.
• It’s the same situation at the American southern border — in 2023, two million people illegally crossed the border.

A problem with no solution

• Climate change, war and geopolitical rivalry drive already precarious populations to seek a place of greater safety.
• But as the numbers rise, politicians continuously recycle bad ideas: close the border, send them back, send them elsewhere.
• The main drivers of migration today are not just poverty and war in the Middle East and Ukraine, but also post-pandemic labour shortages.

Staring into the abyss?

• In more than a dozen countries, populist leaders are poised to either take power or consolidate their hold on the opposition.
• Wannabe fascists are set to play a bigger role in world affairs this year than they have at any time since the Second World War.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.