Global triggers: why these five big issues could cause significant problems in 2024
The ramifications of the Ukrainian war echoed beyond the country’s border.
- The ramifications of the Ukrainian war echoed beyond the country’s border.
- Such trends of global power tensions, open war, democratic decline and extreme job market fluctuations are likely to continue in 2024.
Power shifts
- As the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) organisation expands to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, its growing economic influence could dramatically change the global balance of power.
- For countries that have been sanctioned by the west, such as Iran, becoming a Brics member increases their diplomatic options.
- The Brics’ expansion can also enable members to strengthen their impact by pursuing their political and economic interests more easily.
Global election cycle
- At the core is the US election where former president Donald Trump is likely to be the Republican candidate.
- If re-elected, he may continue with his policy of “global engagement abstention” as evidenced by his past willingness to disengage from Nato.
- Such a stance may weaken the global economic and political system and contribute to the rise of other countries searching for greater global clout.
Heightened tensions in the Middle East
- The Israel/Hamas war will continue to have repercussions beyond the Middle East.
- The risk of further escalation of the conflict regionally has intensified after Israel’s air strike in Beirut.
- The Israel/Gaza war is also likely to discourage investment in the Middle East and disrupt trade routes leading to increasing shipping costs.
China’s economic pressures
- Recently, China’s economy has been described as a “ticking time bomb” as a result of slow economic growth, high youth unemployment, the property sector crisis, lower Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and weaker exports.
- Growth prospects are expected to remain “structurally weaker” with low consumer confidence and spending and declining external demand.
Ageing populations
- In 2022, Japan, Italy, Finland and Germany were among the countries with the greatest share of populations over 65 years of age and by 2050 it is projected that the list will include Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan.
- By 2050 the percentage of the world’s over 60 population will increase from 12% to 22%.
- In addition, there is evidence that the ageing of the population affects labour productivity and labour supply.
Jose Caballero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.