Pakistan’s post-election crisis – how anti-army vote may deliver unstable government that falls into military’s hands
But several days later, it remains unclear what the result of the vote will yield.
- But several days later, it remains unclear what the result of the vote will yield.
- Both of the leading contenders have claimed victory, amid allegations of vote rigging and disputed ballots.
Is it clear who will govern Pakistan next?
- The results as they stand mean that no party is in a position to form a government on its own.
- The Pakistan People’s Party, or PPP, secured 54 seats, placing it third.
- This puts it in a position to help another party form a coalition at the federal level.
With the most seats, is the PTI the front-runner to lead a coalition?
- Even before the final election results became known, the PTI claimed it had won 170 or so seats – enough for it to be able to form a government.
- This suggests the PTI isn’t ready to accept that it did not get enough votes to form a government outright.
That doesn’t sound very stable. Is it?
- Pakistan is now entering an uncertain scenario, which is, in effect, a post-election political crisis.
- The country may need another national vote before too long to secure a more stable and workable government.
The election has been called flawed in the West. Is that fair?
- There was a terrible attack in the restive province of Baluchistan on the eve of the election that killed 28 people.
- But fears of widespread violence on the day of the election did not materialize.
- The country is a military-dominated state, with generals that have long been involved in the country’s politics – and elections.
- There has been a great deal of criticism in the West about cellphones and mobile internet services being blocked on election day.
Will anyone be pleased with the election result?
- A split national assembly and weak government plays into the military’s hands.
- Should the PMLN govern as the major party in a coalition, it will be in a position of relative weakness and will need the army’s support, especially if the PTI engages in widespread protests against the election results.
Are there any positives from the election?
- But the negatives are seen by most to outweigh the positives and the 2024 elections are being viewed as equally – if not more – manipulated and controlled than the 2018 exercise.
- The turnout this time around is estimated to be around 48%, which is lower than in 2018 when it was 51%.
- But what they helped deliver may only help continue Pakistan’s political malaise as it heads into a new, uncertain period.
Ayesha Jalal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.