Who tracked UK COVID infections the best at the height of the pandemic? A new study provides the answer
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Tuesday, October 17, 2023
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We wanted to know which of these methods was the most reliable during the first two years of the pandemic.
Key Points:
- We wanted to know which of these methods was the most reliable during the first two years of the pandemic.
- The gold standard surveillance was the Office for National Statistics (ONS) COVID survey.
- This data tracked the ONS estimates very closely, though the reported numbers were usually only about 45% of the ONS data.
- The Zoe app also tracked the ONS survey estimates closely and was a good estimate of whether infections were rising or falling.
- For COVID, the question was can wastewater testing indicate how much infection is present in the population?
- In our analysis, we found that counts in wastewater were moderately correlated with the prevalence of COVID in the population.
Useful additional insights
- Even so, the other approaches provided useful additional insights.
- NHS 111 call and website data provided useful information early in the pandemic, before other surveillance methods were established.
- Although wastewater surveillance did little to increase our understanding of the course of the pandemic in England, this surveillance method may be useful in countries that don’t have easy access to human testing.