Isabel Schnabel: Unconventional fiscal and monetary policy at the zero lower bound
Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Third Annual Conference organised by the European Fiscal Board on “High Debt, Low Rates and Tail Events: Rules-Based Fiscal Frameworks under Stress” Frankfurt am Main, 26 February 2021 One of the greatest conundrums and policy challenges of our times is the coincidence of persistently low real long-term interest rates and low inflation.
Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Third Annual Conference organised by the European Fiscal Board on “High Debt, Low Rates and Tail Events: Rules-Based Fiscal Frameworks under Stress”
- Frankfurt am Main, 26 February 2021 One of the greatest conundrums and policy challenges of our times is the coincidence of persistently low real long-term interest rates and low inflation.
- Even before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, inflation across many advanced economies had been falling short of central banks aims for nearly a decade.
- In the euro area, hopes that inflation would sustainably recover to levels closer to 2% have been repeatedly and persistently disappointed, despite highly favourable financing conditions.
- Years of subdued price pressures have raised the spectre of low inflation becoming entrenched in peoples expectations.
Monetary policy implications of persistent supply-side shocks
- Slack was gradually disappearing, output gaps had closed and unemployment had declined to record low levels in many advanced economies (see slide 2).
- At first sight, these developments seem to point to a weakened relationship between economic slack and inflation.
- [1] Instead, Phillips curve models point to other factors putting persistent downward pressure on underlying inflation in recent years (see right chart slide 4).
- The implications of these developments for monetary policy are twofold.
- First, since monetary policy is acting on the demand side, it has less traction in countering persistent structural shocks to inflation.
- Second, the decline in real interest rates limits the extent to which monetary policy can stabilise the economy in the wake of demand-side shocks.
- Despite the unprecedented severity of the crisis and the large shortfall in aggregate demand, the ECB did not cut its key policy rates.
- To circumvent the effective lower bound, central banks have resorted to unconventional monetary policies.
The euro area policy mix before and during the pandemic
- For the euro area, there is evidence that public investment tends to crowd in private investment, rather than out.
- [6] A public sector that is largely insensitive to interest rate changes significantly reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy, in particular in the euro area, where governments account for nearly half of total spending.
- An unresponsive fiscal authority disregards the broad empirical evidence that fiscal policy is particularly effective at the lower bound.
- [8] Fiscal policy, then, faces a difficult trade-off between business cycle stabilisation and debt sustainability, in particular in a situation with high legacy debt.
- Risk premia on lower-rated sovereign bonds sky-rocketed in March last year, impairing the transmission of both monetary and fiscal policy.
- For the first time, a euro area-wide instrument was created with the specific aim of ensuring that the aggregate euro area fiscal stance is appropriately countercyclical.
- The policy response to the pandemic is a remarkable showcase for the power of monetary and fiscal policy interaction to boost confidence, stabilise aggregate demand and avoid a persistent destabilisation of medium to long-term inflation expectations.
Macroeconomic stabilisation in the future
- Both facilities, however, are temporary and linked to the pandemic, while the effective lower bound is likely to remain a recurring constraint in the future.
- The question, then, is how to ensure effective macroeconomic stabilisation in the euro area in the future.
- The pandemic holds two lessons, one for monetary and one for fiscal policy.
First, monetary policy has to enable sustainable private and public spending.
- Low rates do not mean that monetary policy no longer has a role to play.
- On the contrary, monetary support will remain an important pillar of macroeconomic stabilisation.
- The horizon of policy support will then depend on the extent to which the private and the public sector make use of accommodative monetary conditions.
- The intensity of policy support, in turn, will evolve endogenously with the economic recovery.
- For example, a rise in nominal yields that reflects an increase in inflation expectations is a welcome sign that the policy measures are bearing fruit.
- To ultimately empower fiscal policy as a transmission channel of monetary policy, the ECB needs to provide liquidity when risks of self-fulfilling price spirals threaten to undermine stability in the euro area as a whole.
The lesson for fiscal policy is that, in lower bound episodes, it has to become more responsive to downturns.
- Put simply, unconventional monetary policy needs to be complemented by unconventional fiscal policy.
- The concept of unconventional fiscal policy is not yet well established.
- [12] A simple Google search, for example, returns more than 700,000 results for unconventional monetary policy but only about 8,000 entries for unconventional fiscal policy.
- In essence, unconventional fiscal policy comprises measures that go beyond traditional automatic stabilisers, which tend to be too small to offset the effects of an adverse demand shock at the lower bound.
Creating a framework for effective stabilisation in the euro area
- In 2019, the European Fiscal Board concluded that the current framework remained insufficient to deliver a more countercyclical fiscal policy stance.
- [14] It also recommended focusing on a single operational indicator an expenditure rule and a single target, a debt anchor.
- An intense debate has emerged, however, about the appropriate level of the debt anchor, and the EUs 60% reference value in particular.
- [15] Not few observers point to the benign implications of the sharp decline in real and nominal interest rates for debt sustainability.
- Despite much higher debt, interest rate expenses as a share of euro area GDP have declined from more than 5% in 1995 to 1.6% today (see left chart slide 9).
- A credible debt anchor remains an important pillar of a stability-oriented policy framework and central bank independence.
- A mechanical application of the current rules could imply fiscal adjustment needs in some euro area economies that would be severely damaging from a societal, economic and monetary policy perspective.
- Public investment and structural policies hold the key to a higher sustainable growth path and higher interest rates.
Conclusion
- My conclusion is therefore that the current era of low inflation and low interest rates which is unlikely to change in the near term in light of the pandemic forces us to reconsider how monetary and fiscal policy should complement each other to protect the economy from large downturns and to minimise risks of long-term scarring.
- Effective macroeconomic stabilisation in the vicinity of the lower bound requires both unconventional monetary and fiscal policies.
- Fiscal policy, in turn, needs to recognise its role in the transmission of monetary policy in a low inflation, low interest rate environment.