Population | Jotup

Who tracked UK COVID infections the best at the height of the pandemic? A new study provides the answer

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, October 17, 2023

We wanted to know which of these methods was the most reliable during the first two years of the pandemic.

Key Points:

We wanted to know which of these methods was the most reliable during the first two years of the pandemic.
The gold standard surveillance was the Office for National Statistics (ONS) COVID survey.
This data tracked the ONS estimates very closely, though the reported numbers were usually only about 45% of the ONS data.
The Zoe app also tracked the ONS survey estimates closely and was a good estimate of whether infections were rising or falling.
For COVID, the question was can wastewater testing indicate how much infection is present in the population?
In our analysis, we found that counts in wastewater were moderately correlated with the prevalence of COVID in the population.

Useful additional insights

Even so, the other approaches provided useful additional insights.
NHS 111 call and website data provided useful information early in the pandemic, before other surveillance methods were established.
Although wastewater surveillance did little to increase our understanding of the course of the pandemic in England, this surveillance method may be useful in countries that don’t have easy access to human testing.

Kenya's cost of living crisis: expert unpacks what's driving it and what should be done

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Tuesday, October 17, 2023

Kenyans are grappling with the high cost of living. Policy analyst Adan Shibia led a technical team that prepared a recent report on the state of Kenya’s economy. We asked him to unpack what’s driving costs, who’s affected and what can be done about it.What is the cost of living crisis in Kenya and how bad is it?Real earnings growth declined by an average of 2.7% between 2020 and 2022.

Key Points:

Kenyans are grappling with the high cost of living. Policy analyst Adan Shibia led a technical team that prepared a recent report on the state of Kenya’s economy. We asked him to unpack what’s driving costs, who’s affected and what can be done about it.

What is the cost of living crisis in Kenya and how bad is it?

Real earnings growth declined by an average of 2.7% between 2020 and 2022.
Since 2022 Kenya has been experiencing high inflation.
Inflation is a measure of the rise in prices of a “basket” of goods selected by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.
These on average account for 42.56% of the consumption basket for all households in Kenya.
The triggers for this inflationary pressure were prolonged drought in 2022 and the Russia-Ukraine war, which disrupted global supply chains of food, energy and fertiliser.

Who is being affected the most?

The analysis in the Kenya Economic Report 2023 shows that prices of cereals, legumes, tubers, fruits and vegetables all increased substantially.
Low-income earners are also affected through prices of other commodities in the consumer basket.
The second group of people affected most are minimum wage earners.
They are also more likely to be affected by climate related shocks that disrupt food supply and livelihood sources.

What’s driving the rising cost of living?

In the domestic market, prolonged drought in 2022 was the main trigger.
While Kenya is a net exporter of unprocessed food items, it is a net importer of processed food products.
Within the global context, the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted supply of cereals (especially wheat), edible oils, energy and fertilisers.

What policy priorities could help?

A policy and legal framework that defines rules of interaction among market participants is also useful.
Strengthening the role of markets is vital because government has limited resources to subsidise basics like fuel, electricity and maize flour.
With stronger markets, private sector players would also be more efficient in production and distribution of products.
Kenyan households spend 9.65% of their income on transport and the transport sector consumes 75% of imported petroleum products.
Well-targeted social protection interventions are essential as policies are implemented towards market-enabled solutions for effective interactions of demand and supply.

Gaza has been blockaded for 16 years – here's what a 'complete siege' and invasion could mean for vital supplies

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Tuesday, October 17, 2023

Water, food, energy and fuel supplies have been severed as further retaliation for Hamas’s attacks.

Key Points:

Water, food, energy and fuel supplies have been severed as further retaliation for Hamas’s attacks.
Gaza’s single power station has now ceased to function, as the current dark night skies – save for explosions – bear witness.
Without fuel or electricity, farmers will be unable to pump water to irrigate crops, or to process and safely store food.
Before the latest hostilities, 70% of Gaza’s households were already classified as “food insecure”, unable to afford their daily requirements.

Water

Mekorot, Israel’s national water company, extracts water from the coastal aquifer that lies beneath bedrock along the coast of Gaza and Israel, to irrigate Israeli farms.
It then pipes and sells water into the Gaza Strip.
And the municipal desalination plant that supplied Gaza with 15% of its water has ceased to function.
Elsewhere, repairs of ageing and damaged infrastructure from previous bombardments have consistently been hampered by the blockade, affecting water pumping, desalination plants and sewage treatment.

Invasion

It is impossible to predict how disastrous a ground invasion would be.
Over the past 15 years, damage to Gaza’s infrastructure is thought to amount to US$5 billion (£4.1 billion) across four previous wars.
After the 22-day invasion from December 2008 to January 2009, the UN documented wide-scale damage to fields, vegetable crops, orchards, livestock, wells, hatcheries, beehives, greenhouses and irrigation systems.
A total siege will go a long way towards turning that prediction into a gruesome reality.

How smaller businesses can become net-zero influencers and enablers

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, October 17, 2023

Cafes and restaurants are also addressing food-related emissions with carbon labelling schemes and more sustainable menu choices.

Key Points:

Cafes and restaurants are also addressing food-related emissions with carbon labelling schemes and more sustainable menu choices.
Recruiting smaller businesses to support the drive for net zero makes a lot of sense.
But the decarbonisation of smaller firms has only recently attracted serious attention from policymakers, through initiatives such as the UK Business Climate Hub.
However, as highlighted in a recent study I worked on with colleagues at Oxford and Sheffield Hallam universities, smaller businesses can also help cut emissions as behavioural “influencers” and “enablers” of change.

Persistent challenges and hopeful signs

But all businesses could benefit from a more joined-up support framework to help them achieve their goals.
By contrast, smaller businesses in England have not had access to a national funding programme for building energy efficiency.
This generates cost and confusion for many smaller businesses as they struggle to find the right support.

Taking SMEs more seriously

But while Skidmore mentions SMEs, there are three key areas where more radical change is needed to help them make a real impact on the UK’s decarbonisation goals: 1.
Information and signposting The review proposed a “Help to Grow Green” campaign, offering information, resources and vouchers for SMEs to plan and invest in the net-zero transition.
The UK government’s Department for Energy Security and Net Zero is piloting a new digital energy advice service to help SMEs navigate the maze of competing information sources.
Energy efficiency Skidmore also called for SMEs to be included in tax reforms to accelerate uptake of energy-efficient technologies.

Saltwater crocodiles are slowly returning to Bali and Java. Can we learn to live alongside them?

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, October 17, 2023

Nothing unusual about that – except this croc was on Legian Beach, one of Bali’s most popular spots.

Key Points:

Nothing unusual about that – except this croc was on Legian Beach, one of Bali’s most popular spots.
Only four months later, a large crocodile killed a man who was spearfishing with friends in Lombok’s Awang Bay, about 100 kilometres east of Bali.
And in Bali, it’s unlikely we’ll see any crocodile recovery because of the importance of beaches to tourism and a high human population.

What happened to Indonesia’s crocodiles?

They’re the largest living reptile, reaching up to seven metres in length – far larger than Indonesia’s famous Komodo dragon, which tops out at three metres.
We have records of attacks on humans in Bali from the early 20th century and across much of Java until the 1950s.
Salties are now being regularly sighted in Indonesia’s densely populated island of Java, including in seas off Jakarta.

Are crocodiles returning in numbers?

On many Indonesian islands, there’s very limited mangrove habitat suitable for crocodiles, and many creeks and rivers may be naturally too small for more than a small number of them.
Dominant males push out smaller male crocodiles, who set out in search of new habitat.
Read more:
Friday essay: reckoning with an animal that sees us as prey — living and working in crocodile country

Where are Bali’s crocs coming from?

You might look at a map and think crocodiles moving back into Bali are coming from Australia.
But there is currently no evidence of significant crocodile movement between Australia and Indonesia.
It would be a brave crocodile to swim more than 1,000 kilometres from Australia to Bali.

What does this mean for residents and tourists?

The spike in sightings and attacks suggests we’re going to have to find ways of living alongside these reptiles.
The coastal waters and estuaries of Lombok and western Java are now likely home to a small resident population.
Does it mean you should cancel your next Bali trip?
Read more:
The Northern Territory does not have a crocodile problem – and 'salties' do not need culling

Decades of underfunding, blockade have weakened Gaza's health system – the siege has pushed it into abject crisis

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, October 17, 2023

By then, four hospitals had already ceased functioning in Gaza’s north due to damage from Israeli bombs.

Key Points:

By then, four hospitals had already ceased functioning in Gaza’s north due to damage from Israeli bombs.
Insufficiently and poorly resourced for decades, doctors and hospitals also had to contend with the devastating effects of a 16-year blockade imposed by Israel, in part with coordination with Egypt.

A system completely overwhelmed

Hospitals in Gaza are completely overwhelmed.
They are seeing around 1,000 new patients per day, in a health system with only 2,500 hospital beds for a population of over 2 million people.
People maimed in the bombing are being treated for horrific injuries without basics such as gauze dressings, antiseptic, IV bags and painkillers.
The U.N. estimates this fuel will run out any day due to a complete siege placed on Gaza by Israel.

A century of underfunding

But Gaza’s health care system was already under stress before the latest bombardment.
In fact, policies that stretch back decades have left it unable to meet even the basic health needs of Gaza’s residents, let alone respond to the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe.
What each have had in common is that, from my perspective as a global health expert, they invested little in Palestinian health.
For periods of the 20th century, the health priorities of successive governing bodies appeared focused more on reducing the spread of communicable disease to protect foreigners interacting with the native Palestinian population.

Dying before they can leave

Since then, chronic underfunding of public hospitals has meant that Palestinians in Gaza have remained reliant on outside money and nongovernmental organizations for essential health services.
During the passage of the Oslo Accords in the mid-1990s, the Palestinian Authority was established to administer services in the occupied territories.
The Palestinian Authority received a significant influx of humanitarian aid as it took on civil responsibilities, including health.
As a result, health indicators for Palestinians, including life expectancy and immunization rates, started to improve in the late 1990s.

Gaza health services after the siege

It is uncertain what the health system of Gaza will look like in the future.
Already at least 28 doctors and other health workers have been killed in Gaza, with ambulances and a number of hospitals rendered useless by the bombs.

'Gaza is being strangled': why Israel's evacuation order violates international law

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, October 17, 2023

During the second world war, for instance, thousands of children across Europe were sent to rural areas or abroad under evacuation schemes initiated by governments and child welfare agencies.

Key Points:

During the second world war, for instance, thousands of children across Europe were sent to rural areas or abroad under evacuation schemes initiated by governments and child welfare agencies.
We are witnessing an urgent, chaotic evacuation ordered by a belligerent party to the conflict, which is fast becoming a humanitarian catastrophe.
Israel has told 1.1 million people in northern Gaza to move to the south ahead of an impending ground invasion.
He said if we are dying anyway, let’s be at home in Gaza.

Evacuating civilians under international law

Evacuations in armed conflict are strictly governed by international humanitarian law, which seeks to balance military and humanitarian needs.
International law requires it to allow and facilitate the rapid and unimpeded passage of humanitarian relief for civilians in need.
As an occupying power under international humanitarian law, Israel may order an evacuation for imperative military reasons, or for the safety of civilians, but civilians must still be protected.
Specifically, Israel must ensure displaced civilians have adequate shelter, hygiene, health, safety and nutrition, and that family members are not separated.

‘Extremely dangerous’

Gaza is being strangled and it seems that the world right now has lost its humanity.
Gaza is being strangled and it seems that the world right now has lost its humanity.
The International Committee of the Red Cross, the custodian of the law of war, rarely publicly rebukes governments.

Treating Gazans as refugees

Gazans are also unable to reach safety in other countries.
Read more:
How the 'laws of war' apply to the conflict between Israel and Hamas
Gazans are normally protected as refugees by the UN relief agency for Palestinians, under a bespoke legal regime.
However, the relief agency’s present inability to provide protection and assistance means Palestinian refugees who do reach another country should be automatically protected as refugees under the 1951 Refugee Convention, without the need for further status determination.

Indigenous Australians supported Voice referendum by large margins; Labor retains large Newspoll lead

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, October 17, 2023

With 79% of enrolled voters counted nationally, “no” has won the Voice referendum by a 60.7–39.3 margin.

Key Points:

With 79% of enrolled voters counted nationally, “no” has won the Voice referendum by a 60.7–39.3 margin.
In Lingiari, where 40 of the population is Indigenous, “no” leads by a 56–44 margin.
The large wins for “no” in Lingiari and other seats with high Indigenous populations are caused by non-Indigenous people in those seats voting heavily “no”.
Most Labor seats have substantial support for right-wing parties, so this doesn’t mean “no” won Labor voters.
Dutton and Thorpe are negatively perceived for reasons other than the Voice, and Thorpe was opposing the Voice from the left.

Labor improved in pre-referendum Newspoll as Dutton sank

A Newspoll, conducted October 4–12 from a sample of 2,638, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since October 3–6.
Primary votes were 36% Labor (up two), 35% Coalition (down one), 12% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down two).

Essential poll: Albanese’s ratings steady, Dutton down

Albanese’s ratings were steady since September at 46% approve, 43% disapprove (net +3), while Dutton’s net approval dropped two points to -7.
Essential has a Voice question that had “no” ahead by 53–38, out from 49–43 in early October.

Victorian Resolve poll: Coalition gains but Labor still far ahead

While Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, I estimate this poll would give Labor a 57–43 lead, a three-point gain for the Coalition since August.
New Labor Premier Jacinta Allan had a 38–19 lead over Liberal leader John Pesutto as preferred premier from the October sample of 553.

Liberal conservative alliance to replace authoritarian party in Poland

New polling shows 'no' voters more likely to see Australia as already divided

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, October 4, 2023

The results of our exclusive opinion poll suggest something to the contrary: most prospective “no” voters see the country as already divided, while “yes” voters are more likely to see it as united.

Key Points:

The results of our exclusive opinion poll suggest something to the contrary: most prospective “no” voters see the country as already divided, while “yes” voters are more likely to see it as united.
These questions were added to the regular Essential opinion poll in its September 5 poll.

Division and the Voice

Of those who see the country as unified, 58% intend to vote “yes”, while only 34% intend to vote “no”.
Those who see division have almost exactly opposite intentions: 59% plan to vote “no” and 34% plan to vote “yes”.
Perceptions of unity and division in Australian society and referendum voting intentions These results are remarkable, and contradict the “no” campaign rhetoric that it is the Voice to Parliament proposal itself that divides us.

Who sees Australia as divided – and why?

Of all the respondents we polled, 27% saw Australia as very or quite unified, and 42% as quite or very divided – which leaves 31% of voters who take a neutral point of view.
Australians may have their disagreements, but only 9% of us see the country as very divided.
It also means “no” voters believe Australia to be considerably more divided, and “yes” voters believe the country to be substantially more unified, than Australians do on average.

A ‘no’ campaign that appeals to perceptions of division

In this sense, rather than offering a voice for unity, the “no” campaign is giving voice to division.
Read more:
The 'yes' Voice campaign is far outspending 'no' in online advertising, but is the message getting through?

Methodology

The survey was conducted online from August 30 to September 3 2023 and is based on 1,151 respondents sourced from online research panels.
Full details of the methodology can be found here.
Samantha Vilkins receives funding from the Australian Research Council through Laureate Fellowship FL210100051 Dynamics of Partisanship and Polarisation in Online Public Debate.

Canada-India crisis: India's post-colonial era explains why it's on edge about Sikh separatism

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Any Canadian diplomats in India past Oct. 10 are expected to lose their immunity.

Key Points:

Any Canadian diplomats in India past Oct. 10 are expected to lose their immunity.
The high-profile diplomatic crisis has confirmed rumours of longstanding tensions between the two countries over the issue of Sikh separatism in the Indian state of Punjab.

The facts so far

Nijjar, a Canadian citizen wanted in India for alleged terrorist acts, was part of the Khalistan movement calling for a Sikh homeland separate from India’s Punjab state.
The movement is controversial because of its organized violence against Indian officials and terrorism-motivated tactics.
India and Canada have each expelled diplomats from their respective countries, and India has suspended visas for Canadians as the diplomatic crisis deepens.

Still to be revealed

Trudeau has yet to reveal the “credible evidence” provided by Five Eyes linking India to the crime.
The FBI has warned American-Sikh activists that their lives are in danger, while U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has called on India to co-operate with Canada and ensure “accountability” over the killing.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Indian government had a hand in Nijjar’s murder.

Fraught history

India has a painful history with separatism after it gained independence from British colonialism in 1947.
Shortly after that, diplomatic and later militaristic crisis over Jammu and Kashmir unfolded, which culminated in two wars between India and Pakistan and several armed engagements.
The parallel rise of Naga nationalism in neighbouring Nagaland is also a thorny issue for Indian authorities.

Existential crisis

On the other hand, India’s secessionist movements represent an existential crisis threatening everything India has worked towards for the past 76 years.
Nijjar’s murder, however, is also a matter of grave importance for Canada.
But both Canada and India will need to calculate the risks and repercussions of such a high-profile diplomatic rift in a highly globalized world.