Fifteen years after the war in Georgia, the dilemmas of the European Union in the South Caucasus
Georgia’s then-president, Mikhail Saakachvili, attempted to regain control of these territories, which represent 20% of Georgia’s surface area, but to no avail.
- Georgia’s then-president, Mikhail Saakachvili, attempted to regain control of these territories, which represent 20% of Georgia’s surface area, but to no avail.
- At the instigation of Nicolas Sarkozy, then president of France, the European Union took on the role of mediator.
- Russia is still exerting pressure to penetrate further into the territory today through what is known as the technique of “frontierisation”.
- Russia’s objectives in the South Caucasus are similar to those that led to its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
A crossroads of influence
- Turkish support serves Erdogan’s ambitions in Central Asia: to rebuild historical, cultural, linguistic, economic and political links with Turkic-speaking countries.
- Azerbaijan, even as it balances the interests of Turkey and Russia, has also been a partner of the European Union since 2022.
- The fastest route is the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) rail link, which then leads to the Turkish ports or the undersea Marmaray train tunnel.
A fragile partnership
- EU countries are already among Georgia’s main trading partners, accounting for 17.7% of Georgian exports in 2021, followed by China (16.6%), Russia (13.3%), Azerbaijan (12.7%) and Turkey (8.7%).
- The European Commission’s opinion on Georgia’s application for membership defined twelve priorities that the country must meet in order to obtain candidate status.
- These include strengthening the independence of the anti-corruption authority, promoting gender equality and working toward the "de-oligarchisation” of the country.
- The demonstrations in March 2023 against the Russian-inspired “foreign agents” law showed the division of the country and the fragility of the situation.