Financial economics

Decomposing systemic risk: the roles of contagion and common exposures

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Tuesday, April 23, 2024

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Abstract

Key Points:

Abstract
We evaluate the effects of contagion and common exposure on banks? capital through
a regression design inspired by the structural VAR literature and derived from the balance
sheet identity.
Contagion can occur through direct exposures, fire sales, and market-based
sentiment, while common exposures result from portfolio overlaps.
First, we document that contagion varies in time, with the highest levels
around the Great Financial Crisis and lowest levels during the pandemic.
Our new framework complements
traditional stress-tests focused on single institutions by providing a holistic view of systemic risk.
While existing literature presents various contagion narratives, empirical findings on
distress propagation - a precursor to defaults - remain scarce.
We decompose systemic risk into three elements: contagion, common exposures, and idiosyncratic risk, all derived from banks? balance sheet identities.
The contagion factor encompasses both sentiment- and contractual-based elements, common exposures consider systemic
aspects, while idiosyncratic risk encapsulates unique bank-specific risk sources.
Our empirical analysis of the Canadian banking system reveals the dynamic nature of contagion, with elevated levels observed during the Global Financial Crisis.
In conclusion, our model offers a comprehensive lens for policy intervention analysis and
scenario evaluations on contagion and systemic risk in banking.
This
notion of systemic risk implies two key components: first, systematic risks (e.g., risks related
to common exposures) and second, contagion (i.e., an initially idiosyncratic problem becoming
more widespread throughout the financial system) (see Caruana, 2010).
In this paper, we decompose systemic risk into three components: contagion, common exposures, and idiosyncratic risk.
First, we include contagion in three forms: sentiment-based contagion, contractual-based
contagion, and price-mediated contagion.
In this context,
portfolio overlaps create common exposures, implying that bigger overlaps make systematic
shocks more systemic.
With the COVID-19 pandemic starting
in 2020, contagion drops to all time lows, potentially related to strong fiscal and monetary
supports.
That is, our
structural model provides a framework for analyzing the impact of policy interventions and
scenarios on different levels of contagion and systemic risk in the banking system.
This provides a complementary approach to
seminal papers that took a structural approach to contagion, such as DebtRank Battiston et al.
More generally, the literature on networks and systemic risk started with Allen and Gale
(2001) and Eisenberg and Noe (2001).
The matrix is structured as follows:
1
In our model, we do not distinguish between interbank liabilities and other types of liabilities.
In other words, we can and aim to estimate different degrees
of contagion per asset class, i.e., potentially distinct parameters ?Ga .
For that, we build three major
metrics to check: average contagion, average common exposure, and average idiosyncratic risk.
N i j
et ,
Further, we define the (N ?K) common exposure matrix as Commt = [A

(20)

et ]diag (?C
?L

such that average common exposure reads,
average common exposure =

1 XX
Commik,t .
N i j
(22)

20

? c ),

The three metrics?average contagion, average common exposure, and average idiosyncratic risk?provide a comprehensive framework for understanding banking dynamics.
Figure 4 depicts the average level of risks per systemic risk channel: contagion risk, common exposure, and idiosyncratic risk.
Figure 4: Average levels of contagion (Equation (20)), common exposure (Equation (21)), and idiosyncratic risk
(Equation (22)).
The market-based contagion is the contagion due to
investors? sentiment, and the network is an estimate FEVD on volatility data.
For most of
the sample, we find that contagion had a bigger impact on the variance than common exposures.

Monetary asmmetries without (and with) price stickiness

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Friday, April 19, 2024

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Key Points:

Is home bias biased? New evidence from the investment fund sector

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Thursday, April 18, 2024

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Key Points:

OptionMetrics Head Quantitative Researcher Garrett DeSimone Ph.D. to Give Keynote at QuantVision Conference in New York City on April 4

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Wednesday, April 3, 2024

OptionMetrics Head of Quantitative Research Garrett DeSimone Ph.D. will give a keynote on Risk Neutral Factors – Implied Variance Asymmetry and Beta at Fordham’s Quantitative Conference – QuantVision – on April 4 in New York City.

Key Points:

OptionMetrics Head of Quantitative Research Garrett DeSimone Ph.D. will give a keynote on Risk Neutral Factors – Implied Variance Asymmetry and Beta at Fordham’s Quantitative Conference – QuantVision – on April 4 in New York City.
DeSimone, who holds a Ph.D. in Financial Economics from University of Delaware, where he served as an adjunct lecturer, will propose a new, combined factor for institutional investors to leverage in assessing risk.
“A common drawback of utilizing volatility as a measure to assess stocks with upside potential and risk is that it treats upside gains and downside losses as having the same relative riskiness.
Our research at OptionMetrics shows how integrating existing factors such as implied beta and implied variance asymmetry (IVA) into portfolio construction can provide another useful tool to assess risk,“ says DeSimone .

As interest rates surge: flighty deposits and lending

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Friday, April 5, 2024

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Key Points:

Isabel Schnabel: R(ising) star?

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Wednesday, April 3, 2024

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This box investigates how households have responded to the 2021-23 inflationary episode using evidence from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey.

Key Points:

This box investigates how households have responded to the 2021-23 inflationary episode using evidence from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey.
The findings suggest that households have primarily adjusted their consumption spending to cope with higher inflation.

US monetary policy is more powerful in low economic growth regimes

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Tuesday, April 2, 2024

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Key Points:

The impact of regulatory changes on rating behaviour

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Tuesday, April 2, 2024

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Abstract

Key Points:

Abstract
We examine rating behaviour after the introduction of new regulations regarding Credit Rating
Agencies (CRAs) in the European securitisation market.
There is empirical evidence of rating catering in the securitisation market in the pre-GFC period (He et al.,
2012; Efing and Hau, 2015).
Competition among
CRAs could diminish ratings quality (Golan, Parlour, and Rajan, 2011) and promotes rating shopping by
issuers resulting in rating inflation (Bolton et al., 2012).
This paper investigates the impact of the post-GFC regulatory changes in the European
securitisation market.
In 2011, in addition to the creation of
European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), a regulatory and supervisory body for CRAs was
introduced.
We examine how rating behaviours have changed in the European securitisation market after the
introduction of these new regulations.
We utilise the existence of multiple ratings and rating agreements between
CRAs to identify the existence of rating shopping and rating catering, respectively (Griffin et al., 2013; He
et al., 2012; 2016).
We find that the regulatory changes have been effective in tackling conflicts of interest between issuers
and CRAs in the structured finance market.
Rating catering, which is a direct consequence of issuer and
CRA collusion, seems to have disappeared after the introduction of these regulations.
There is empirical evidence of rating catering in the securitisation market in
the pre-GFC period (He et al., 2012; Efing and Hau, 2015).
Competition among CRAs could diminish ratings quality (Golan, Parlour,
and Rajan, 2011) and promotes rating shopping by issuers resulting in rating inflation (Bolton et
al., 2012).
This paper investigates the impact of the post-GFC regulatory changes in the European
securitisation market.
In 2011, in addition
to the creation of European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), a regulatory and
supervisory body for CRAs was introduced.
We find that the regulatory changes have been effective in tackling conflicts of interest
between issuers and CRAs in the structured finance market.
Rating catering, which is a direct
consequence of issuer and CRA collusion, seems to have disappeared after the introduction of
these regulations.
Investors who previously demanded higher spreads for rating agreements for a
multiple rated tranche, did not consider the effect of rating harmony as a risk in the post-GFC
period.
Regarding rating shopping, we find that the effectiveness of the changes has been limited,
potentially for two reasons.
Additionally, we also find that rating over-reliance might still be an issue, especially
Rating catering is a broad term and it can involve rating shopping.
They re-examine the rating shopping and rating
catering phenomena in the US market by looking at the post-crisis period between 2009 and 2013.
Using 622 CDO tranches, they also observe the existence of rating shopping and the diminishing
of the rating catering.
Firstly, our main focus is the EU?s CRA Regulation and its effectiveness in reducing
rating inflation and rating over-reliance.
To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to
examine the effectiveness of the EU?s CRA regulatory changes on the investors? perception of
rating inflation in the European ABS market.
Hence, the coverage and quality of our dataset constitutes significant addition
to the literature and allows us to test the rating shopping and rating catering more authoritatively.
The following section reviews the literature
on securitisation concerning CRAs and conflicts of interest, and outlines the regulatory changes
introduced in the post-GFC period.
Firstly, ratings became ever more important as the Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC) 5 began heavily relying on CRA assessments for regulatory purposes
(i.e.
the investment mandates that highlight rating agencies as the main benchmark for investment
eligibility) (SEC, 2008; Kisgen and Strahan, 2010; Bolton et al., 2012).
issuers) as one of the main explanations for the rating inflation (He et al., 2011; 2012; Bolton
et al., 2012; Efing and Hau, 2015).
Bolton et al., (2012) demonstrate that competition
promotes rating shopping by issuers, leading to rating inflation.
The last phase, CRA III, was implemented in mid-2013 and involves an additional
set of measures on reducing transparency and rating over-reliance.
As mentioned above, rating inflation can be caused by rating shopping
In order to be eligible to use the STS classification, main parties (i.e.
The higher the difference in the number of ratings for a
given ABS tranche, the greater the risk of rating shopping.
Alternatively, the impact of the new
regulations could be limited when it comes to reducing rating shopping.
This is because, firstly,
the conflict of interest between securitisation parties is not necessarily the sole cause for the
occurrence of rating shopping.
L is a set of variables (Multiple ratings, CRA reported, Rating agreement) that
we utilise interchangeably to capture the rating shopping and rating catering behaviour.
Hence, issuers are incentivised to report the highest possible rating and
ensure each additional rating matches the desired level.
All in all, our results suggest that
the new stricter regulatory measures have been effective in tackling conflicts of interest and
reducing rating inflation caused by rating catering.
Self-selection might be a concern in analysing the impact of the
new measures and investors? response with regard to the rating inflation.
This
result is in line with the earlier findings suggesting that regulatory changes have reduced investors?
suspicion of rating inflation and increased trust of CRAs.
Conclusion
Several regulatory changes were introduced in Europe following the GFC aimed at tackling
conflicts of interest between issuers and CRAs in the ABS market.
Utilising a sample of 12,469
ABS issued between 1998 and 2018 in the European market, this paper examined whether these
changes have had any impact on rating inflations caused by rating shopping and rating catering
phenomena.
We find that the
effectiveness of the changes has been more limited on rating shopping potentially for two reasons.
Tranche Credit Rating is the rating reported for a tranche at launch.

Rover Appoints Gunnar Pedersen as Director

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Monday, March 11, 2024

School, Financial economics, Investment, News, CFA, Graduate, Gunnar, Gunnar Pedersen, Research, FX, Management

Vancouver, BC, Mar 11, 2024 - (ACN Newswire) - Rover Critical Minerals Corp. (TSXV:ROVR)(OTCQB:ROVMF)(FSE:4XO) (" Rover " or the " Company ") is pleased to announce the appointment of Gunnar Pedersen to the Company's Board of Directors.

Key Points:

Vancouver, BC, Mar 11, 2024 - (ACN Newswire) - Rover Critical Minerals Corp. (TSXV:ROVR)(OTCQB:ROVMF)(FSE:4XO) (" Rover " or the " Company ") is pleased to announce the appointment of Gunnar Pedersen to the Company's Board of Directors.
Salim Tharani has tendered his resignation as Director to accommodate the appointment of Mr. Pedersen.
Mr. Pedersen holds a Graduate degree in Financial Economics from the Norwegian School of Economics and is a CFA charter holder.
Judson Culter, CEO at Rover, states "Appointing Gunnar to our Board of Directors is part of our one-two punch strategy of bolstering our ranks.

Philip R. Lane: Euro area international financial flows: analytical insights and measurement challenges

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, February 13, 2024

We document how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices depending on the underlying shock driving them.

Key Points:

We document how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices depending on the underlying shock driving them.
Supply shocks, moreover, are found to pass through to all components of euro area inflation – producer prices, wages and core inflation, which has implications for monetary policy.