Business cycle

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia Increased

Monday, November 18, 2019 - 3:30pm

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

Key Points: 
  • The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
  • The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators.
  • For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators, click here .
  • The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico Remains Unchanged

Friday, November 15, 2019 - 4:00pm

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

Key Points: 
  • The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
  • The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators.
  • For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators, click here .
  • The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area Declined

Friday, November 15, 2019 - 2:30pm

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

Key Points: 
  • The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
  • The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators.
  • For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators, click here .
  • The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Increased

Wednesday, November 13, 2019 - 2:30pm

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

Key Points: 
  • The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
  • The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators.
  • For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators, click here .
  • The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain Declined

Tuesday, November 12, 2019 - 2:30pm

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

Key Points: 
  • The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
  • The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators.
  • For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators, click here .
  • The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for South Korea Increased

Friday, November 8, 2019 - 3:30pm

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

Key Points: 
  • The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
  • The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators.
  • For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators, click here .
  • The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead.

Luis de Guindos: Welcome remarks

Thursday, November 7, 2019 - 12:12am

Welcome remarksRemarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECB Forum on Banking Supervision, Frankfurt am Main, 6 November 2019November 2014, exactly five years ago, was certainly a crossroads for the euro area banking sector.

Key Points: 

Welcome remarks

    Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECB Forum on Banking Supervision, Frankfurt am Main, 6 November 2019

      • November 2014, exactly five years ago, was certainly a crossroads for the euro area banking sector.
      • The creation of the Single Supervisory Mechanism conferred both micro- and macroprudential responsibilities on the ECB.
      • In particular, I will touch upon our joint effort in carrying out banking sector stress tests and our interaction in the conduct of prudential policy in the current environment.

    Micro- and macroprudential interaction and coordination

      • Macroprudential policy has to complement supervisory scrutiny by accounting for system-wide macro-financial feedback loops.
      • Thanks to this system-wide perspective, macroprudential policy can address structural vulnerabilities and act countercyclically tightening requirements when we see excessive risk-taking, and loosening them to avoid a credit crunch after risks have materialised.
      • Embedding both micro- and macroprudential responsibilities within the ECB ensures that our actions are based on consistent information and are coordinated for the banking union as a whole.
      • In turn, for macroprudential policy national authorities remain the first line of defence to promptly counter emerging systemic risks.
      • But the ECB can set higher macroprudential requirements than those set by national authorities, if necessary.
      • Exercising the micro- and macroprudential function requires close coordination and cooperation.
      • [5] Over the last five years, cooperation between micro- and macroprudential authorities has increased in all phases of the stress-testing process.

    Countercyclical macroprudential policy

      • These models will also help micro- and macroprudential authorities to address challenges in the current macro-financial environment.
      • This has been facilitated by the economic recovery and by an accommodative monetary policy stance.
      • But most of all, it reflects both the increased market pressure for banks to be well-capitalised, and the introduction of regulatory reforms, including macroprudential buffers.
      • [9] The currently implemented macroprudential buffers amount to 1% of risk-weighted assets and are intended to absorb losses by banks.
      • Of all these buffers, only the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) is intended to be released.
      • Only with releasable buffers in place can macroprudential policy fully play its countercyclical role.
      • In an adverse scenario, the macroprudential authority would release the buffer and thereby lower the MDA threshold.

    Concluding remarks

    The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Increased

    Wednesday, November 6, 2019 - 3:30pm

    The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

    Key Points: 
    • The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
    • The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators.
    • For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators, click here .
    • The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead.

    Temporary Employment in the U.S. to Grow Faster Than All Jobs Through 2025, According to New Job Forecast from TrueBlue and Emsi

    Friday, November 1, 2019 - 9:00am

    Temporary Help Services is the largest category of gig employment and serves as a bellwether for broader growth trends.

    Key Points: 
    • Temporary Help Services is the largest category of gig employment and serves as a bellwether for broader growth trends.
    • A study by TrueBlue and Emsi projects that Temporary Help Services employment will grow to more than 3.2 million jobs by 2025, an increase of nearly 254,000 jobs (8.5 percent) from 2019.
    • This compares to 6 percent growth for all U.S. jobs from 2019 to 2025.
    • Temporary employment has been growing steadily for the last several years as the U.S. recovered from the last recession.

    New report confirms Kenney's budget will tip Alberta into recession and kill more jobs than the oil price collapse of 2014-16

    Wednesday, October 30, 2019 - 5:04pm

    The report, entitled The Kenney Recession Confirmed , is a follow-up to an earlier report that modelled the impact that recommendations from the MacKinnon Panel would have on jobs and the economy in Alberta.

    Key Points: 
    • The report, entitled The Kenney Recession Confirmed , is a follow-up to an earlier report that modelled the impact that recommendations from the MacKinnon Panel would have on jobs and the economy in Alberta.
    • That earlier report, entitled The Kenney Recession , concluded that MacKinnons recommendations, if implemented, would kill more jobs in Alberta than had been lost during the oil-price collapse of 2014-16.
    • The new report, being released by the Alberta Federation of Labour today, confirms that by following closely to recommendations from the MacKinnon panel, the Kenney governments new budget will likely tip the Alberta economy into recession.
    • This budget will tip us into recession in order to pay for tax cuts that wont create jobs.