Religion

• With Sunday’s hindsight, one can affirm the event has marked an unprecedented shift in recent Turkish politics.
• What made its victory historic is the extension of its influence beyond its traditional urban strongholds until areas long considered bastions of the ruling AKP.

Erdoğan’s party clings to strongholds

• Indeed, the 31 March results highlight a significant shift within the right-conservative area too.
• The success of the more extremist factions, represented by the Islamist Yeniden Refah Partisi (YRP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), shows discontent on both sides of Erdoğan’s electorate.
• Conversely, those who chose not to renew their support for the AKP due to economic reasons have shifted toward the Republican People’s Party (CHP).

An outcome impacted by different factors

• Several factors significantly influenced the outcome of the elections.
• The economic situation took centre stage, with the opposition effectively highlighting the distinction between national economic issues and local governance achievements.
• This decline predominantly reflected the dissatisfaction among Erdoğan’s party supporters, many of whom expressed discontent with the country’s economic trajectory.

A distinction between Erdoğan and his party

• With Erdoğan not being a direct candidate, AKP’s supporters seemed to have made a distinction between the leader and the party.
• Despite his indirect candidacy, the highly personalised campaign led by Erdoğan failed to energise his base, highlighting a desire for political renewal and change.
• By taking action, they have helped create a more balanced political environment, reducing the dominance of any single extreme.

A strong democratic resilience

• The CHP’s historic victory signals a shift in the political dynamics, with economic dissatisfaction, leadership renewal, and governance concerns driving a broad swath of the electorate toward the opposition.
• While these elections have represented an unprecedented result for the opposition in Turkey, the post-election period will undoubtedly not be straightforward.
• First, advancing a depolarising narrative aimed at bridging the traditional secularist-conservative divide that has characterised the Turkish electorate for years.

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