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• The U.S. has been the largest single donor backing Ukraine since Russian troops invaded the country in February 2022.
• Biden has asked Congress to approve another $95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel and other allies.
• While the Senate passed this foreign aid bill in February 2024, it is stalled in the House of Representatives.
• It is not entirely clear when and how the House will vote on Ukraine.
• Still, as a scholar of Eastern Europe, I think there are a few important reasons why the U.S. is unlikely to cut funding to Ukraine.

Republicans are divided over Ukraine aid

• Johnson is facing pressure to delay voting on the Ukraine foreign aid bill for a few reasons.
• One major factor is fighting between Republicans, who hold a slim majority in the House.
• While some centrist Republican politicians support Ukraine funding and are pushing for a vote on the foreign aid package, others – hard-right Republicans – want a bill that prioritizes what they say are American interests, meaning more of a focus on domestic U.S. problems.

Delays on Ukraine benefit Putin

• As the House continues to stall on a vote, Ukraine is rationing ammunition and supplies.
• Delays with foreign aid to Ukraine give Putin time to move forward with plans to purchase ballistic missiles from Iran.
• Without foreign aid from the U.S., Ukraine will face a strategic disadvantage that could lead to Russia winning the war.

The US needs Europe to compete with China

• One factor is U.S. global power competition with China.
• Russian and Chinese leaders declared a military and political partnership days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
• They announced on April 9, 2024, that they want to find ways to strengthen their joint security work across Asia and Europe.
• U.S. political and military leaders have noted that supporting Ukraine and pushing back against Russia is one clear way to deter China from strengthening its global political power and military reach.
• The U.S. needs its long-standing allies in Europe to help push back against China – and deterrence is only as effective as the size of the force doing the deterring.

Foreign aid benefits US arms industry

• Most of America’s military aid to Ukraine consists of arms and ammunition from existing U.S. stockpiles.
• If Congress approves an additional $60 billion for Ukraine, more than half of this money would go to U.S. factories that manufacture missiles and munitions.
• In December 2023, Biden signed a U.S. defense policy bill that authorizes a record-high $886 billion in spending from July 2023 through June 2024.
• But it also allows for the purchasing of new ships, aircraft and other types of ammunition.

Americans continue to support Ukraine aid

A majority of Americans still favor U.S. support of Ukraine, though about half of Republicans said in December 2023 that the U.S. is giving too much money to the country. Even though politicians do not always follow public opinion, there are clear reasons why it is not in the U.S.’s best interests to cut funding to Ukraine.
Tatsiana Kulakevich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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