Latest Data from HouseCanary Reveals Seasonal Shift in Housing Demand May Be on the Horizon

HouseCanary, Inc. (“HouseCanary”), a leading provider of residential real estate data and home valuations, today released its latest Market Pulse report, covering 22 listing-derived metrics and comparing data between the week ending August 28, 2020 and the week ending March 13, 2020. The Market Pulse is an ongoing review of proprietary data and insights from HouseCanary’s nationwide platform.

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HouseCanary Market Pulse Report

Note: Effective September 3, 2020, the Market Pulse report will be released on a bi-weekly basis. The next Market Pulse report will be released on Thursday, September 17.

Jeremy Sicklick, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of HouseCanary, commented: “The sustained supply deficit, lifting of COVID-19 precautions in several states and the devastating effects of natural disasters across the country have created impending risks that are difficult for potential home buyers to ignore. The slight pullback of home sales activity over the past few weeks may reflect early signs of a seasonal shift in demand as the initial surge of pandemic buying weakens. The persistent tight supply has driven up home prices significantly across the country and lower-priced homes, in particular, are in short supply, creating a dilemma for many first-time buyers and investors. While we do not see a significant leveling out or dramatic shift in the supply-demand imbalance in the third quarter of 2020, the potential expiration of forbearance programs in early 2021 has the potential to catalyze a surge in distressed home sales, which would likely take some of the heat off home prices.”

Select findings from this week’s Market Pulse are below. Be sure to review the Market Pulse in full for extensive state-level data.

Weekly Contract Volume (Single-Family Detached Homes):

• Weekly contract volume is down 5.8% week-over-week
• Percent change in contract volume week-over-week, broken down by home price:
  • $0-$200k: (-6.5%)
  • $200k-$400k: (-5.3%)
  • $400k-$600k: (-5.3%)
  • $600k-$1mm: (-6.4%)
  • >$1mm: (-8.0%)
• Weekly contract volume is up 8.9% nationwide compared to the week ending March 13, when most COVID-19 measures were implemented
• Percent change in weekly contract volume since the week ending March 13, broken down by home price:
  • $0-$200k: (-6.5%)
  • $200k-$400k: +6.0%
  • $400k-$600k: +17.8%
  • $600k-$1mm: +35.1%
  • >$1mm: +51.0%

Weekly New Listing Volume (Single-Family Detached Homes):

• New listing volume is down 6.5% week-over-week
• New listing volume is down 26.0% nationwide compared to the week ending March 13, when most COVID-19 measures were implemented
• Decline in new listing activity since the week ending March 13, broken down by home price:
  • $0-$200k: (-29.3%)
  • $200k-$400k: (-29.2%)
  • $400k-$600k: (-23.4%)
  • $600k-$1mm: (-17.6%)
  • >$1mm: (-12.6%)

Total Net New Listings:

• Since the week ending March 13, there have been 1,431,796 net new listings placed on the market, representing a 15.2% decrease relative to the same period in 2019
• For the week ending August 28, there were 51,214 net new listings placed on the market, representing a 7.2% decrease compared to the previous week
• Percentage of total net new listings since March 13, broken down by home price:
  • $0-$200k: 22.5%
  • $200k-$400k: 44.6%
  • $400k-$600k: 17.7%
  • $600k-$1mm: 10.2%
  • >$1mm: 5.0%

Median Listing Price Activity (Single-Family Detached Homes):

• 39 states are experiencing higher median prices of closed listings since the onset of the pandemic, with 23 states continuing to climb week-over-week
  • The states with the most significant closed listing price increases since the pandemic’s onset include:
    • New Jersey: +31.9%
    • Connecticut: +28.9%
    • Vermont: +28.6%
  • The most significant week-over-week closed listing price increases include:
    • New York: +14.1%
    • Vermont: +3.1%
    • Rhode Island: +2.4%

Total Listings Under Contract:

• Since the week ending March 13, 1,646,563 properties have gone into contract across 41 states, representing a 0.2% decrease relative to the same period in 2019
• For the week ending August 28, there were 68,907 listings that went under contract nationwide
• Percentage of total contract volume since the week ending March 13, broken down by home price:
  • $0-$200k: 24.0%
  • $200k-$400k: 45.0%
  • $400k-$600k: 17.2%
  • $600k-$1mm: 9.5%
  • >$1mm: 4.3%

As a nationwide real estate broker, HouseCanary’s broad multiple listing service (“MLS”) participation allows us to evaluate listing data and aggregate the number of new listings as well as the number of new listings going into contract for all single-family detached homes observed in the HouseCanary database. Using this data, HouseCanary continues to track listing volume, new listings, and median list price for 41 states and 50 individual Metropolitan Statistical Areas (“MSAs”).

About HouseCanary:

Founded in 2013, valuation-focused real estate brokerage HouseCanary provides software and services to reshape the real estate marketplace. Financial institutions, investors, lenders, mortgage investors, and consumers turn to HouseCanary for industry-leading valuations, forecasts, and transaction-support tools. These clients trust HouseCanary to fuel acquisition, underwriting, portfolio management, and more. Learn more at www.housecanary.com.

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