National Year-over-Year (YoY) HPA in October was 5.1% with the Midwest Leading the Way in HPA growth

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Despite subdued demand and historically high rates, Year-over-Year (YoY) HPA bottomed out in April 2023 and is expected to continue rising through December 2023 and beyond.

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GlobeNewswire, Inc.

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, November 22, 2023

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Tags:

AEI, HPA, The American Enterprise, Yoy, Rare-earth element

Geotags:

WASHINGTON D.C., DC, US

Organisation:

AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE

Summary

Key Points:

Despite subdued demand and historically high rates, Year-over-Year (YoY) HPA bottomed out in April 2023 and is expected to continue rising through December 2023 and beyond.
Historically, low price tier HPA has outpaced HPAs for the upper price tiers.
This trend continued in October, with the YoY HPA up 6.3% and 3.7% for the low price tier and high price tier, respectively.
The months’ supply for the low price tier came in at 2.5 months in October 2023, helping to explain the 6.3% YoY price growth for this tier.

WASHINGTON, Nov. 22, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- National constant-quality home prices in October 2023 were down 0.5% from a month ago and up 5.1% from a year ago (not seasonally adjusted), according to data from the American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) Housing Center. Despite subdued demand and historically high rates, Year-over-Year (YoY) HPA bottomed out in April 2023 and is expected to continue rising through December 2023 and beyond.

YoY HPA varied significantly among the 60 largest metros (see #1 in graphic). It ranged from -3.5% in Austin (-6.7% inflation-adjusted) to 10.4% in Milwaukee (+7.2% inflation-adjusted).

Home prices were above the peak levels reached in 2022 in 31 out of the 60 largest metros; and none of them are in the West (see #2 in graphic). Metros in the Midwest, which continue to be relatively affordable, lead the recovery.

Historically, low price tier HPA has outpaced HPAs for the upper price tiers. This trend continued in October, with the YoY HPA up 6.3% and 3.7% for the low price tier and high price tier, respectively.

Months’ supply stood at 4.0 months in October 2023, up from 3.9 months in September 2023 and 3.6 months in October 2019 (pre-pandemic). (See #3 in graphic). Low levels of supply continue to signal a strong seller’s market. The months’ supply for the low price tier came in at 2.5 months in October 2023, helping to explain the 6.3% YoY price growth for this tier.

The AEI Housing Center provides the most advanced and timely information on home prices available. Measures of home price appreciation like the Case Shiller index have months of lag. The Housing Center has published data for October 2023 and is able to accurately project November and December with Optimal Blue rate lock data as well.

National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index – October 2023

Media Contact Details:

Sissi Li
American Enterprise Institute Housing Center
Washington, DC
https://www.aei.org/centers/housing-center/
[email protected]
203-419-5240

An infographic accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/1eb3227f-93a1-4adf-9e20-6fc95854bd5f