National Year-over-Year (YoY) HPA in September was 4.8% and is expected to continue rising through November 2023 and beyond

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Despite subdued demand and historically high rates, the Year-over-Year (YoY) HPA bottomed out in April 2023 and is expected to continue rising through November 2023 and beyond.

Metadata

Provider:

GlobeNewswire, Inc.

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, October 25, 2023

Information

Tags:

AEI, Yoy, Case–Shiller index, The American Enterprise, HPA, Oak Park Regional Housing Center, Hpa-an

Geotags:

WASHINGTON D.C., DC, US

Organisation:

AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE

Summary

Key Points:

Despite subdued demand and historically high rates, the Year-over-Year (YoY) HPA bottomed out in April 2023 and is expected to continue rising through November 2023 and beyond.
This trend continued in September, with the YoY HPA up 6.7% and 3.9% for the low price tier and high price tier, respectively.
Months’ supply stood at 3.9 months in September 2023, up from 3.2 months in August 2023 and 3.8 months in September 2019 (pre-pandemic).
The months’ supply for the low price tier came in at 2.5 months in September 2023, helping to explain the 6.7% YoY price growth for this tier.

WASHINGTON, Oct. 25, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- National constant-quality home prices in September 2023 were down 0.1% from a month ago and up 4.8% from a year ago (not seasonally adjusted), according to data from the American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) Housing Center. Despite subdued demand and historically high rates, the Year-over-Year (YoY) HPA bottomed out in April 2023 and is expected to continue rising through November 2023 and beyond.

YoY HPA varied significantly among the 60 largest metros (see #1 in graphic). It ranged from -8.8% in Austin (-12.5% inflation-adjusted) to 10.4% in Milwaukee (+6.7% inflation-adjusted).

Home prices have now passed the peak levels reached in 2022 in 33 out of the 60 largest metros; and none of them are in the West (see #2 in graphic). Metros in the Midwest, which continue to be relatively affordable, lead the recovery.

Historically, low price tier HPA has outpaced HPAs for the upper price tiers. This trend continued in September, with the YoY HPA up 6.7% and 3.9% for the low price tier and high price tier, respectively.

Months’ supply stood at 3.9 months in September 2023, up from 3.2 months in August 2023 and 3.8 months in September 2019 (pre-pandemic). (See #3 in graphic). Low levels of supply continue to signal a strong seller’s market. The months’ supply for the low price tier came in at 2.5 months in September 2023, helping to explain the 6.7% YoY price growth for this tier.

The AEI Housing Center provides the most advanced and timely information on home prices available. Measures of home price appreciation like the Case Shiller index have months of lag. The Housing Center has published data for September 2023 and is able to accurately project October and November with Optimal Blue rate lock data as well.

National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index – September 2023

Media Contact Details:

Sissi Li
American Enterprise Institute Housing Center
Washington, DC
https://www.aei.org/centers/housing-center/
Sissi[email protected]
203-419-5240

An infographic accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/4d598721-3eca-43ed-af87-9db88d73b705