BerGenBio (BGBIO): AXLeration of data catalysts in 2021

London, UK, 27 February 2021

 BerGenBio (BGBIO): AXLeration of data catalysts in 2021

BerGenBio (BGBIO) has made steady progress during 2020. Lead asset bemcentinib (oral, once a day, highly selective AXL inhibitor) reported encouraging efficacy data from ongoing Phase II trials. Multiple catalysts expected in 2021 will define BGBIO's clinical trial strategy in AML/MDS and/or NSCLC. The FY20 operating loss was significantly higher than in FY19 (NOK261.1m vs NOK204.4m) due to higher set-up costs and increased investment in programme expenses. We expect operating expenses to increase significantly across 2021/22 as BGBIO further progresses its innovative AXL-centred pipeline, which includes bemcentinib in oncology (and COVID-19 potential) and the initiation of a Phase Ib/IIa trial to evaluate its AXL antibody tilvestamab in an undisclosed indication. BGBIO remains well funded following net c NOK700m raised in 2020. We value the company at NOK4.72bn or NOK54.1 per share.

We value BGBIO at NOK4.72bn or NOK54.1/share (NOK5.16bn or NOK59.1/share previously). Our forecasts remain unchanged, but our valuation has been affected by FX. The key value drivers are bemcentinib in second-line NSCLC (peak sales $1.2bn, NOK37.4/share) and AML (peak sales $598m, NOK12.3/share) plus the COVID-19 opportunity (peak sales $300m, NOK5.4/share). We do not include tilvestamab in our valuation, but will revisit this when we have clarity on the indications prioritised for development. 

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