Underground nuclear tests are hard to detect. A new method can spot them 99% of the time
Groups such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization are constantly on the lookout for new tests.
- Groups such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization are constantly on the lookout for new tests.
- However, for reasons of safety and secrecy, modern nuclear tests are carried out underground – which makes them difficult to detect.
Fallout
- For example, the US’s 1954 Castle Bravo test, conducted in secret at Bikini Atoll in the Marshall Islands, delivered large volumes of radioactive fallout to several nearby islands and their inhabitants.
- In 1963, the US, the UK and the USSR agreed to carry out future tests underground to limit fallout.
How to spot an atom bomb
During this period there were substantial international efforts to figure out how to monitor nuclear testing. The competitive nature of weapons development means much research and testing is conducted in secret. Groups such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization today run global networks of instruments specifically designed to identify any potential tests. These include:
A needle in a haystack
- First are body waves, which travel outwards in all directions, including down into the deep Earth, before returning to the surface.
- As a result, monitoring underground tests is like searching for a potentially non-existent needle in a haystack the size of a planet.
Nukes vs quakes
- If an event occurs far from volcanoes and plate tectonic boundaries, it might be considered more suspicious.
- Alternatively, if it occurs at a depth greater than say three kilometres, it is unlikely to have been a nuclear test.
- This outcome underlines the importance of using multiple independent discrimination techniques during monitoring – no single method is likely to prove reliable for all events.
An alternative method
- As a result, we were able to take advantage of fundamental differences between the sources of explosions and earthquakes to develop an improved method of classifying these events.
- We tested our approach on catalogues of known explosions and earthquakes from the western United States, and found that the method gets it right around 99% of the time.
Mark Hoggard works for the Australian National University. He receives funding from Geoscience Australia and the Australian Research Council.