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Why two largely white and tiny states still matter so much to the US presidential election

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수요일, 1월 17, 2024

Democratic National Committee, African Americans, Pulse, Political lists, Map, Ford, Finger, Republican, Calendar, Population, White, Running, Democratic Party, Democrat

With his closest rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley lagging far behind, it seems the Republican primary contest is over before it has even begun.

Key Points:

With his closest rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley lagging far behind, it seems the Republican primary contest is over before it has even begun.
Since the 1970s, Iowa has kicked off the US presidential election year with the first caucuses of the primary season.
This changed for Democrats following the 2020 election, when the party ditched the first-in-the-nation caucuses for a mail-in vote.

How Iowa was put on the map

At first, few noticed or cared about the Iowa caucuses’ early position.
Little-known presidential hopeful Jimmy Carter led a grassroots campaign in Iowa — and the next-in-line New Hampshire primary — to deliver unexpected early victories in the Democratic nominating contest.
Once he put the Iowa caucuses on the map, the state sought to ensure they remained there.

An unrepresentative state

Iowa might be a big electoral prize, but the Mid-Western state itself is tiny and hardly representative of America as a whole.
Iowa is more rural than the national average and among the country’s least diverse states.
Many rightly point out that Iowa’s demographics more closely resemble the 19th-century United States than the America we know today.

As Iowa and New Hampshire go, so goes the nation (sometimes)

In the ten contested Democratic Iowa caucuses since 1976, the winner has gone on to secure the Democratic nomination in seven instances.
The most notable exception in recent times was Biden, who finished fourth in Iowa in 2020.
Of these seven successful nominees, just two — Carter and Barack Obama — would go on to become president.
Almost every major party nominee since 1972 has, however, won in either Iowa or New Hampshire.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

More than a pay dispute: what's really behind the Papua New Guinea riots

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수요일, 1월 17, 2024

Growth, Police, Grammatical mood, Violence, Housing, Government, Employment, PNG, Rage, Population, Motu, Drug

Prime Minister James Marape declared a state of emergency as shops were set on fire and citizens shot.

Key Points:

Prime Minister James Marape declared a state of emergency as shops were set on fire and citizens shot.
Whatever the reason, public servants, crucially including the beleaguered police force, promptly went on strike and abandoned their posts, leading to the violence and looting.
Whether Marape’s or the political opposition’s explanation is plausible is perhaps less important than trying to understand the underlying causes of such apparently spontaneous violence.
Prior to European contact, a total of about 2,000 Motu and Koita villagers lived in the Port Moresby area.
Read more:
World leaders are flocking to Papua New Guinea.
We also know most of its residents are as shocked and appalled by the violence as we are.

A new year means new fitness goals. But options for people with disability are few and far between

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수요일, 1월 17, 2024

Adults living with disability can experience a range of benefits from participating in community-based physical activities such as dance, Tai Chi and yoga, our recently published review found.

Key Points:

Adults living with disability can experience a range of benefits from participating in community-based physical activities such as dance, Tai Chi and yoga, our recently published review found.
Yet adults with disability are less physically active than those without disability, with inclusive community-based physical activities few and far between.
This puts people with disability at increased risk of further disability.

Benefits of physical activity

Our systematic review included 74 trials with 2,954 men and women living with mild-to-moderate physical and intellectual disability.
All but one of these physical activities were delivered in condition-specific groups (for example, a group for people with Parkinson’s disease).
Benefits included improvements in walking, balance and quality of life, and reductions in fatigue, depression and anxiety.

Considerations for physical recreation in the community

Some physical recreation activities included in the review used adjustments and extra equipment to be suitable for people with disability.
Most local community-based recreation groups should be able make simple adjustments to meet the needs of people living with mild to moderate disability.
It may also limit the confidence of the person with disability to join a local class.

Access to services is a basic right

Australia also has a Disability Discrimination Act (1992).
But this seems to provide little incentive for services to take active measures to prevent disability discrimination.

The commission’s final report recommended strengthening laws to protect people with disability, prevent discrimination, and build a more inclusive society. Momentum and expectation is growing in Australian society for better inclusion for people living with disability.

So what can we do for better physical activity inclusion?

First, more physical activity options suitable for people with disability are needed in the community.
People with disability will then be able to choose an activity that suits their needs and preference.
Second, community-based physical activities need to enable the person with disability to access the setting safely and have equipment suitable to use.

Anne Tiedemann has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Medical Research Future Fund.
Cathie Sherrington has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Medical Research Future Fund.

Australians are concerned about AI. Is the federal government doing enough to mitigate risks?

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수요일, 1월 17, 2024

Today, the federal Minister for Industry and Science Ed Husic revealed an interim response from the Australian government on the safe and responsible use of artificial intelligence (AI).

Key Points:

Today, the federal Minister for Industry and Science Ed Husic revealed an interim response from the Australian government on the safe and responsible use of artificial intelligence (AI).
The public, especially the Australian public, have real concerns about AI.
By 2030, it may increase the Australian economy by 40%, adding A$600 billion to our annual gross domestic product.
Some 69% of Australians, compared to just 23% of Japanese, were worried about the use of AI.

What are the main points in the government’s response on AI?

First, there’s a plan to work with industry to develop voluntary AI Safety Standards.
Second, there’s also a plan to work with industry to develop options for voluntary labelling and watermarking of AI-generated materials.
And finally, the government will set up an expert advisory body to “support the development of options for mandatory AI guardrails”.

A little late?

It’s hard not to conclude then that the federal government’s most recent response is a little light and a little late.
Read more:
How AI could take over elections – and undermine democracy
We’ve already seen deepfakes used in recent elections in Argentina and Slovakia.
The European Union has led the way in the regulation of AI – it started drafting regulation back in 2020.

A risk-based approach

Like the EU, the Australian government’s interim response proposes a risk-based approach.
For example, you likely get a lot less spam email thanks to AI filters.
But there are other areas, such as the judiciary and policing, where the impact of AI could be more problematic.

However, the biggest risk the report fails to address is the risk of missing out.
AI is a great opportunity, as great or greater than the internet.
Read more:
AI: the real threat may be the way that governments choose to use it

Toby Walsh receives funding from the Australian Research Council and Google.org on grants to build trustworthy AI.

We are losing tetrapod species at a faster rate than we are rediscovering them

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수요일, 1월 17, 2024

Our research, published today in the journal Global Change Biology, attempts to pin down why certain tetrapod species are rediscovered but others not.

Key Points:

Our research, published today in the journal Global Change Biology, attempts to pin down why certain tetrapod species are rediscovered but others not.
It also reveals that the number of lost tetrapod species is increasing decade-on-decade.
This means that despite many searches, we are losing tetrapod species at a faster rate than we are rediscovering them.

Rediscoveries lead to conservation action

Thus, rediscoveries are important: they provide evidence of the continued existence of highly threatened species, prompting funding for conservation action.
The results or our study may help to prioritise searches for lost species.
In the image below, we mapped their global distribution, identifying regions with many lost and few rediscovered species.

What factors influence rediscovery?

Are there specific factors that influence rediscovery?
We then proposed three broad hypotheses about factors that might influence rediscovery: characteristics of (i) tetrapod species, and (ii) the environment influence rediscovery, and (iii) human activities influence rediscovery.
For example, body mass (a species characteristic) may positively influence rediscovery, as larger lost species should be easier to find.
Based on these hypotheses, we collected data on a series of variables associated with each lost and rediscovered species (for example, their body mass), which we then analysed for their influence on rediscovery.

Hard to find + neglected = rediscovered

In fact, since the completion of our study, De Winton’s Golden Mole (Cryptochloris wintoni) has been rediscovered in South Africa.
Our results also suggest some species are neglected by conservation scientists, particularly those that are not considered to be charismatic, such as reptiles, small species and rodents.
Voeltzkow’s chameleon (Furcifer voeltzkowi), a small reptile species, was rediscovered in Madagascar in 2018.

Lost or extinct?

For example, remaining lost mammal species are, on average, three times larger than rediscovered mammal species.
Furthermore, one third of remaining lost mammal species are endemic to islands, where tetrapod species are particularly vulnerable to extinction.
Perhaps the limited resources available for biodiversity conservation would be better used to search for lost species likely to still exist.

Thomas Evans received funding from The Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.

1 good thing about the Iowa caucuses, and 3 that are really troubling

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수요일, 1월 17, 2024

Well, GOP, Government, The New York Times, News, Republican, Population, Running, Drake University, United States Census Bureau, CNN, Democrat, Trump

Every four years, the Iowa caucuses find new ways to become a problematic part of the presidential nomination process.

Key Points:

Every four years, the Iowa caucuses find new ways to become a problematic part of the presidential nomination process.
Democrats have abandoned the Iowa-first tradition, at least for 2024, but Republicans went full speed ahead with the caucuses on Jan. 15, 2024.
Earlier this month, Republican candidate Nikki Haley dissed Iowa, telling a New Hampshire audience that their state primary that occurs after the Iowa caucuses would correct the mistakes made in Iowa.
“You know that you correct it.” That’s the sort of thing a candidate trying to do well in Iowa says after the caucuses – not before.

Iowa’s upside for long-shot candidates

Fans of the Iowa caucuses also note that lesser-known candidates can compete without having huge campaign war chests or political experience.
But how is being inexperienced in government or being unpopular with party donors considered a good things for selecting presidents?

Ramaswamy could only pull in 7% of Iowa caucus voters despite his boasts of visiting each of Iowa’s 99 counties, a feat officially known as a “full Grassley,” named for Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley.
They didn’t last all that long after Iowa.

Modern-day media realities

In the 2024 presidential campaign, Republican campaigns spent more than US$100 million on 2024 Iowa caucuses advertising, which amounts to about $600 for every Republican caucus participant.
In the 2020 presidential campaign, the total amount of ad spending was $44 million – and that included spending from Democratic and Republican candidates.

The media’s outsized role involves more than just receiving inflated campaign spending.
The fact that reporters focus on horse-race dynamics and downplay issues has long been a problem that diminishes interest and voter turnout, as media scholar S. Robert Lichter and I demonstrated in our 2010 book “The Nightly News Nightmare.” Those who defend Iowa and New Hampshire say they are more accessible to lesser-known and inexperienced candidates, but national polling and fundraising, as well as media coverage, are increasingly used as criteria determining who can effectively participate in these small-state processes and who can’t.

Long-standing flaws

The largest Republican caucus turnout was 180,000 voters in 2016, and the best year for Democratic turnout was 240,000 voters in 2008, when Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton.
If Iowa switched to a primary, which would allow a daylong window for voting, evidence demonstrates there would be a lot more participation.
With limited exceptions, Iowa caucuses require a voter to appear in person during the evening in the middle of winter.

Aside from the convenience factor, the major problem with the Iowa caucuses is that the state does not remotely look like America. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the vast majority – 88% – of Iowans are white. For the U.S. as a whole, that figure is about 75%. What that means is that caucus results may not be reflective of the nation as a whole but merely a snapshot of a certain small-town, folksy part of America.

Vote-counting delays

Despite decades of experience in running caucuses, Iowa has demonstrated that it frequently cannot count.
The New York Times described the 2020 Iowa caucuses as an “epic meltdown,” as results were not finalized for days.
One wants to ensure accuracy, and delays of days for election results are normal in closely fought contests.

A possible alternative?

Well, scholars suggest a range of alternatives, including a one-day, nationwide primary, a small-state-first system that groups states of similar population sizes, or perhaps a series of five or so multistate regional primary contests, with the order of the regional groups determined by lottery.
None of these alternatives seems likely to happen, though, and that means the various problems with the Iowa caucus process will continue, regardless of which party is conducting one.

Stephen J. Farnsworth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Your body already has a built-in weight loss system that works like Wegovy, Ozempic and Mounjaro – food and your gut microbiome

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수요일, 1월 17, 2024

Wegovy, Ozempic and Mounjaro are weight loss and diabetes drugs that have made quite a splash in health news.

Key Points:

Wegovy, Ozempic and Mounjaro are weight loss and diabetes drugs that have made quite a splash in health news.
They target regulatory pathways involved in both obesity and diabetes and are widely considered breakthroughs for weight loss and blood sugar control.
Here’s an inside-out perspective on the role natural gut hormones and healthy food play in metabolism and weight loss.

A broken gut

These include GLP-1, a natural version of Wegovy and Ozempic.
GLP-1 and other hormones like PYY help regulate blood sugar through the pancreas.

Prior to modern processed foods, metabolic regulatory pathways were under the direction of a diverse healthy gut microbiome that used these hormones to naturally regulate your metabolism and appetite.
Removal of these key food components and the resulting decrease in gut microbiome diversity may be an important factor contributing to the rise in obesity and diabetes.

A short track to metabolic health

Researchers have demonstrated their effectiveness at weight loss and blood sugar control.
These drugs complement other measures like gastric bypass surgery that are used in the most extreme cases of metabolic disease.
Medical guidelines support the use of new incretin-based medications like Wegovy, Ozempic and Mounjaro to manage the interrelated metabolic conditions of diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular disease.

A near-magic bullet – for the right folks

Despite the success and prospect of these drugs to help populations that may benefit most from them, current prescribing practices have raised some questions. Should people who are only a little overweight use these drugs? What are the risks of prescribing these drugs to children and adolescents for lifelong weight management?

These symptoms are related to how the drugs work to slow the gastrointestinal tract.
Other more severe, but rare, side effects include pancreatitis and irreversible gastroparesis, or inflammation of the pancreas and stomach paralysis.

All roads lead to lifestyle

Despite our greatest aspirations for quick fixes, it’s very possible that a healthy lifestyle remains the most important way to manage metabolic disease and overall health.
This includes regular exercise, stress management, sleep, getting outdoors and a balanced diet.

Christopher Damman is on the scientific advisory board at One BIO and Supergut.

Uganda's battle for the youth vote – how Museveni keeps Bobi Wine’s reach in check

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수요일, 1월 17, 2024

Young people aged below 30 make up about 77% of the country’s population of 47 million people.

Key Points:

Young people aged below 30 make up about 77% of the country’s population of 47 million people.
Opportunities remain limited, with two-thirds of Ugandans working for themselves or doing family-based agricultural work.
Bobi Wine’s run at the presidency in the 2021 election highlights the reality that capturing the youth vote in Uganda is complex.
The outcome of the 2021 elections defied expectations, given Uganda’s large and underemployed youth population and the emergence of Bobi Wine.

the structural capture of youth representation in Ugandan politics
diverse economic incentives for political loyalty in the form of loan schemes, grants and short-term employment
well-spun political narratives that draw on entrenched views of youth as beholden to their elders and the state.

New wine, old bottles

Commentators worldwide suggested his candidacy represented a real and unprecedented threat to Yoweri Museveni’s longstanding rule.
This is about the same proportion of votes that has accrued to the main opposition candidates in Uganda since multi-party elections resumed in 2006.
There were also reports of the ruling party dishing out money to potential voters, with instructions to vote for Museveni.
Contemporary tactics used by the ruling party to co-opt the youth converge with these historically rooted methods of regime consolidation.

Splitting the youth

First, the youth are organised into a “special interest group” reinforced through quota systems.
Political structures, such as youth MPs and representatives, absorb youth representation under regime authority and entrench regional divisions.
Ahead of the 2021 election, Museveni gave state appointments to popular musicians with wide youth appeal who had been working closely with Bobi Wine’s party.
Youth are often recruited as election workers, special police constables and crime preventers.

What hope for Bobi Wine?

In northern Uganda, for example, young people have lived through a recent history of devastating conflict and still struggle with its legacies.
Against this backdrop, if Bobi Wine contests in 2026, he is likely to struggle again.
Arthur Owor, the director for research and operations at the Centre for African Research, is a co-author of this article.

Rebecca Tapscott receives funding from the ESRC-funded Centre for Public Authority and International Development (CPAID) and the Gerda Henkel Foundation's Special Programme for Security, Society and the State. Anna Macdonald receives funding from the ESRC-funded Centre for Public Authority and International Development (CPAID).

COVID barely gets a mention these days – here's why that's a dangerous situation

Retrieved on:

수요일, 1월 17, 2024

For the year to December 2023, in England COVID rates peaked at around one in 24 people.

Key Points:

For the year to December 2023, in England COVID rates peaked at around one in 24 people.
During the same month, Singapore also experienced record COVID cases and a spike in hospitalisations.
COVID, then, is still a major public health problem, accounting for 10,000 deaths in 50 countries and a 42% increase in hospitalisations during December 2023 alone.
COVID may not be a global health emergency at the moment, but it is still killing and harming far too many people worldwide.

How to fight COVID complacency

In future campaigns, boosters should be offered more broadly.
Cleaner air is essential for public health and will have benefits that extend beyond COVID.
Good ventilation can not only reduce the spread of COVID and other respiratory viruses, but can generally help reduce indoor air pollution, and can even improve things such as school attendance and concentration in the classroom.

Existing evidence suggests that masks do work to help reduce the transmission of COVID.
We can still live with COVID and at the same time respect, and try to reduce, the harm it can cause.

Simon Nicholas Williams has received funding from Senedd Cymru, Public Health Wales and the Wales Covid Evidence Centre for research on COVID-19, and has consulted for the World Health Organization. However, this article reflects the views of the author only, in his academic capacity at Swansea University, and no funding or organizational bodies were involved in the writing or content of this article.

US election 2024: Trump victory in Iowa caucus not as big as he may have hoped – here's why Biden still wants him to get GOP nomination

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수요일, 1월 17, 2024

Hope, The New York Times, Republican Party, Corrosion engineering, Failure, GOP, Democrat, Crime, MAGA, Republican, Population, Liberal Party (Brazil, 2006), DeSantis, News, Public opinion

The last successful GOP candidate who won the Iowa caucus was George W Bush in 2000.

Key Points:

The last successful GOP candidate who won the Iowa caucus was George W Bush in 2000.
This is partly because Iowa, with just over 3 million inhabitants represents less than 1% of the wider US population.
Its voters are also much older, more rural, whiter (90%), more evangelical and less college educated than the US at large.
Those turning out to vote for Trump were also a smaller, self-selecting subset of even that tiny population.

Biden wants Trump to win

It was true yesterday and it’ll be true tomorrow.” This is also how Biden and his team want it.
By contrast, polls pitting Biden against either Haley or DeSantis show a marked improvement in the prospect for the Republic Party.
By contrast, the Democrats see such a process as their best chance of overcoming Biden’s own unpopularity with the electorate.

Negative ratings

Trump’s national favourability ratings currently stand at 42%.
This is a very different picture from that painted by the news coverage from the Iowa caucus.

David Hastings Dunn has previously received funding from the ESRC, the Gerda Henkel Foundation, the Open Democracy Foundation and has previously been both a NATO and a Fulbright Fellow.