Wholesale power prices are falling fast – but consumers will have to wait for relief. Here’s why
Wholesale power prices are falling steeply in Australia, following two years of surging prices after the Ukraine war triggered an energy crisis.
- Wholesale power prices are falling steeply in Australia, following two years of surging prices after the Ukraine war triggered an energy crisis.
- New data shows annualised spot prices for power in Australia’s main grid fell by about 50% in 2023.
- Energy retailers buy most of their power in advance at set prices, accepting higher average prices for less volatility.
How is power priced?
- The state or territory government runs the power system, and prices are set by a regulator.
- Here, retailers buy power on the wholesale spot market from generators and compete for your business by offering different prices and bundling electricity with other services such as gas or broadband.
- Default offers were intended as a fair price for power and to work as a safety net so consumers weren’t overcharged.
- Nearly all of us have now signed up for market offers, leaving fewer than 10% of consumers still on a default offer.
- Competing retailers tend to mirror changes to the default offers in their market offers.
- That means most, if not all, consumers should start seeing lower default prices reflected in their bills from this date onwards.
Ironing out fluctuations
- Prices can be as low as negative A$1,000 per megawatt hour or as high as +$16,000 a megawatt hour if there are outages or intense demand during a heatwave.
- Retail prices, including default offers, will respond to changes in wholesale prices when those changes are reflected in the retailers’ contract prices.
What about politics?
- At present, the Albanese government is under real pressure over the cost of living.
- Successive interest rate rises and more expensive petrol and groceries have left many of us feeling poorer.
- After all, governments have given regulators a difficult job to do: deliver fair prices in a rapidly evolving electricity market.
- It would be better for the long-term interests of consumers and energy suppliers if they were allowed to get on with it.
What’s next?
- But the energy transition isn’t as simple as substituting solar and wind for coal.
- Big investments in transmission and energy storage are needed to connect more renewables and maintain a reliable system.
Tony Wood may have interests in companies impacted by the energy transition through his superannuation fund.